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When will Kazakhstan lose its sovereignty?

Link Copy 2023-02-11 12:23:08

Prediction

In 2035

Reason

In 2035, Kazakhstan will not be able to pay off the national debt with China. China will demand land.

In 2035

According to the government's analytical report, there can be no problems until 2050. The national debt will amount to 32% of GDP.

References

Accuracy 20

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Have China and the United States agreed on tariffs?

Link Copy 2025-06-12 14:09:57

Prediction

Yes, due to Chinese restrictions on the trade of rare earth metals.

Reason

China controls rare earth elements that are necessary for almost all advanced technologies and are almost entirely produced in China. It accounts for 70% of their global production and, more importantly, over 90% of their processing. Thus, it can respond to restrictions from the USA and the EU. Therefore, negotiations will have to be made with China. Chinese media note that the supply of many important medicines in the USA is also almost entirely controlled by China.

Yes, due to Chinese restrictions on the trade of rare earth metals.

China itself is very much dependent on world trade. And foreign trade is a constant leash for China.

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Will Russia be able to carry out import substitution of electronics by 2030?

Link Copy 2022-12-12 08:25:20

Prediction

If we are talking about the purchase of obsolete equipment, then yes. If we are talking about the production of semiconductors with 0, then no.

Reason

Lack of specialists. There is a critical dependence of the design and production processes on foreign technologies, including software, and materials (in particular, high-purity chemistry and silicon). Low investment attractiveness of the industry. Lack of production capacity.

If we are talking about the purchase of obsolete equipment, then yes. If we are talking about the production of semiconductors with 0, then no.

3.19 trillion rubles will be enough only to buy obsolete equipment. ASML spent $6 billion a year to become an industry leader. But she had specialists, there were no sanctions and there was no urgent need. In the current situation, the amount needs to be tripled.

References

Accuracy 30

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Why does Kazakhstan need a unicameral parliament?

Link Copy 2025-09-09 11:20:00

Prediction

Tokayev wants another term, despite constitutional restrictions

Reason

The introduction of a single parliament in Kazakhstan requires amendments to the Constitution. After the amendments are made, the powers of the president can be extended, because now the new Constitution and the term can be counted from scratch.

Tokayev wants another term, despite constitutional restrictions

Similarly, in Russia, through a constitutional amendment, the restriction on the prohibition of two consecutive terms in presidential elections was circumvented.

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