When will the euro disappear?

2024-01-29 06:34:34

In 2034

There is a massive outflow of capital from Europe, which flows into dollar assets. Accordingly, the positions of the euro are declining, and the dollar and yuan are strengthening. The Chinese yuan is beginning to overtake the euro as a world currency. And this cannot be changed.

After the exit of any member from the EU or the collapse of the EU, no one will need the euro. The dollar will strengthen in the short term, since it will be necessary to shift savings to some more stable currencies. Europe will not buy American goods because of the crisis, and there will be no one to sell them to. China, Russia will not buy because of the sanctions. It still does not buy from India, hoping for its own market. Asia also does not need American goods. The East will not buy goods in large volumes. In addition, the dollar index is calculated based on the euro. And now the euro is being artificially held, despite the crisis, it is not falling, but with the collapse of the EU, it will no longer be possible to keep it.

The euro was ambushed: Why the EU currency may disappear, what fluctuations await the exchange rate and how to save savings

When will a quantum computer be developed for personal use?

2024-05-03 10:39:08

A fundamentally new chip manufacturing technology will be developed by 2040

The current chip printing technology will exhaust its resource

Some scientists believe that in real work, a quantum computer has no advantages over an ordinary powerful computer

When will the AI bubble burst?

2025-12-14 07:43:49

In 2031.

Why is everyone talking about a bubble? 1) Huge investments with uncertain returns for many startups. 2) Thousands of AI startups that are essentially just a shell for other people's models. 3) High expectations: AI will replace everyone tomorrow. 4) Limitations of the models: hallucinations, high cost, dependence on data and computing power. OpenAI alone has attracted $300 billion in investments. Such investments will not pay off under any circumstances. By 2030, the company will need to show record profits, which it does not have.

Many AI startups will shut down or be acquired. Investors will become stricter: they want a real business case, not just 'we have AI'.

What is Russia's path?

2023-09-27 09:43:10

First it will restore the USSR, then it will start a war with China.

After the coup in Ukraine in 2014 and the failed coup in Belarus in 2020, Russia realized that if nothing was done, the country would face war. Therefore, an association of countries like the European Union will be created. Belarus will be the first to enter it. Due to the sanctions in the country, almost the entire high-tech sector depends on supplies from China. With sanctions, high levels of corruption, high taxes and the elites' disinterest in change, Russia will not be able to resist the Chinese economy. Eventually, China will displace all competitors, including domestic companies, and will dominate the country. There is no progress in creating a competitive economy. Chinese specialists will move to the country en masse, displacing Russian specialists. When Russia tries to restrict China, China will act militarily.

Moscow takes all taxes for itself, and then distributes them by region. The regional elite is not at all interested in the growth of business in the regions, since its well-being depends on the ability to ask Moscow, and not on the growth of the number of enterprises. It is impossible to conduct business legally in the regions without paying bribes and fines. The legislation allows businesses to be blocked for 30 days in case of violations, so businesses pay bribes to avoid being blocked. A 47% tax and a 13% credit rate also do not contribute to business growth. Compared to the Chinese tax of 12% and the credit rate of 0.02%. Despite the fact that China spends money on cargo transportation, it is more profitable to produce and buy in China than in Russia.

The East is a delicate matter. The war has increased Russia's economic dependence on China

What does China mean for the Russian economy

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