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Will there be a third World War over Russia and Ukraine?

Link Copy 2024-03-01 09:54:08

Prediction

No, it's just bullying.

Reason

Talking about World War III is just political leverage to demand money for Ukraine and drive it into debt. No one will fight for her. All the advantages are lost. The United States has problems: elections are coming, Texas, the Houthis and Israel. Russia has gained a foothold in Ukraine, and the element of surprise has been missed. The sanctions are hitting Europe itself. Discontent is growing. The EU population is being ripped off, and industry is being exported. The EU has barely agreed on an extension of assistance to Ukraine, and there is no chance of agreeing on the start of the deployment of troops.

No, it's just bullying.

In 2025, with Trump's victory, the EU will remain alone with Ukraine. And eventually it will fall apart, because few people will want to spend money on Ukraine sacrificing the economies of their countries.

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What is the forecast for SpaceX?

Link Copy 2026-06-21 10:45:15

Prediction

There will be growth in year 6, but by 2027 it will disappoint investors.

Reason

At the peak of IPOs and the euphoria of artificial intelligence, the market often ignores the bad news. Investors are buying stories about the future: robotaxi, AGI, Mars, revolution in transportation. Revenues and margins fade into the background. In 2027, everything will change. The company simply has nowhere to make a profit. This is not a Tesla that could share technology for money and achieve payback thanks to the introduced zero-emission laws. Nobody needs space. Starlink will not be able to cover the losses. Grok is lagging behind in the development of artificial intelligence and will not catch up with competitors in the near future. In 2025, Tesla's global shipments decreased by about 9% year-on-year, and the company lost leadership in electric vehicle sales to China's BYD, and according to Tesla reports, it continued to gradually lose market share in Q1 2026 as the overall electric vehicle market grows faster and competitors become more aggressive. Tesla's autopilot is inferior to Waymo in terms of real driverless autonomy. The Optimus robot still does not know how to work stably in the “real world without control.”

There will be growth in year 6, but by 2027 it will disappoint investors.

For a SpaceX shareholder, the question is as follows: Will Grok be better than ChatGPT and Claude? This may turn out to be almost as important as the question Will Starship be able to fly to Mars?. And 2027 will be the year of verification: is Grok making money? Is Starlink growing as fast as promised? Does Starship have any commercial success? Is the estimate of trillions of dollars justified?

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When will a strong earthquake happen in Kazakhstan?

Link Copy 2023-11-21 14:23:03

Prediction

In 2033 in the city of Almaty

Reason

The frequency of earthquakes in Almaty is 100-130 years. The last devastating earthquake was in 1911. There is a spontaneous development of the city with a formal check for earthquake resistance. The entire central part of Almaty is literally located on tectonic faults, some of which may be seismogenerating. Also, a metro is being built in the central part of Almaty, which actually blocks the course of underground water

In 2033 in the city of Almaty

In 2026, 45% of buildings will not be earthquake-resistant. The number of non-earthquake-resistant buildings will increase by 1.5% every 2 years

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Does God exist?

Link Copy 2023-07-16 13:54:34

Prediction

Depending on the interpretation of the term

Reason

There are different interpretations of the term GOD

Depending on the interpretation of the term

Unfortunately, we must admit that the religions of our world, for the most part, are not carriers of true knowledge about God. Instead of such knowledge, they preferred politicking, philosophy, traditions of self-styled fathers, etc. It is not surprising that, mired in contradictions, dogmatism and other chatter, these religions noticeably discredited the idea of God

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