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What is Trump's plan to end the war in Ukraine really?

Link Copy 2024-11-09 13:49:13

Prediction

Freezing the conflict for 20 years

Reason

Trump's advisers are considering a plan to end the conflict between Moscow and Kiev, which involves freezing the front line, creating a demilitarized zone and abandoning Ukraine's bid to join NATO for 20 years in exchange for continued arms supplies. Trump intends to put pressure on Ukraine and Russia in the form of an ultimatum. Two of Trump's military advisers have offered to force Ukraine into peace talks, threatening to cut off arms supplies. At the same time, they said that Russia's refusal to negotiate would lead to increased support for Ukraine from the United States. A plan to resolve the conflict will be presented after the inauguration on January 20. In the meantime, Trump is considering various options presented by his advisers.

Freezing the conflict for 20 years

The problem will not be solved, but postponed for 20 years in order to restore and arm Ukraine. Signing peace on such terms is unacceptable for Russia.

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What will happen if Ukraine wins the war?

Link Copy 2023-01-11 05:38:29

Prediction

Russia will have to pay hundreds of billions to compensate for the physical damage caused by the invasion. Military restrictions of the Russian Navy: no Russian Navy in the Black, Azov and Baltic Seas for 50 years. Military restrictions of the Russian army: from all its northern, western and southern borders, Russia must withdraw troops at least 100 km. War crimes: Russia must be punished for its wartime atrocities. Nuclear weapons: Under the new treaty with NATO, Russia must immediately agree to reduce its nuclear weapons to a quantity and quality no greater than that of the United States, and agree to inspections by NATO to ensure this compliance.

Reason

The scenario is plausible if Ukraine is supported long enough or fought on the side of Ukraine.

Russia will have to pay hundreds of billions to compensate for the physical damage caused by the invasion. Military restrictions of the Russian Navy: no Russian Navy in the Black, Azov and Baltic Seas for 50 years. Military restrictions of the Russian army: from all its northern, western and southern borders, Russia must withdraw troops at least 100 km. War crimes: Russia must be punished for its wartime atrocities. Nuclear weapons: Under the new treaty with NATO, Russia must immediately agree to reduce its nuclear weapons to a quantity and quality no greater than that of the United States, and agree to inspections by NATO to ensure this compliance.

All that stops the West from these scenarios is Russia's possession of nuclear weapons.

References

Accuracy 20

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What will happen after Palestine declares war on Israel?

Link Copy 2023-10-07 09:08:22

Prediction

A world war will begin

Reason

America will enter the war on the side of Israel, because American companies are located in this country. Iran will enter the war on the side of Palestine, because Muslims are being killed there. The entire Muslim world may be involved in the war. The beginning of a world war depends on how quickly countries will be ready to send troops. Nuclear weapons can be used.

A world war will begin

The conflicts in Ukraine and Africa are likely to be frozen, since the United States has money for only one war.

References
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Why is the war in Ukraine not ending?

Link Copy 2025-11-01 03:50:32

Prediction

The most likely scenario for concluding peace is an agreement mediated by third countries, if both sides consider it beneficial, but this option was postponed by the United States, ending negotiations for at least 6 months. The countries' goals are mutually exclusive, and neither side is yet ready to make concessions that the other deems acceptable.

Reason

Possible scenarios for the end of the war 1. Military exhaustion of one or both sides. 2. Political change is a change of government or an external course in one of the countries. 3. An agreement mediated by third countries, if both sides consider it beneficial. 4. Frozen conflict - cessation of active hostilities without final peace. 5. Victory in the war. Russia - if it starts mass mobilization and mass offensives. Ukraine - if the West starts fighting for it. Currently, the West (the United States, the EU, and NATO) supports Ukraine with weapons, intelligence, and finances, but it is not fighting for it.

The most likely scenario for concluding peace is an agreement mediated by third countries, if both sides consider it beneficial, but this option was postponed by the United States, ending negotiations for at least 6 months. The countries' goals are mutually exclusive, and neither side is yet ready to make concessions that the other deems acceptable.

Instead of starting negotiations, Ukraine was again pumped with weapons and money. They probably expect the Russian president to be overthrown.

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