About the conditions of peace
The United States has signed an agreement with Ukraine on the use of its mineral resources. These territories are already partially under Russian control. Most likely, the United States and Russia have agreed that Russia will cede these territories to the United States in exchange for guarantees of non-aggression. But the question is what to offer Ukraine for the territories currently occupied by Russia, as this effectively means the loss of sovereignty.

Most likely, Ukraine will be offered EU membership, and these are the concessions that Russia will have to make.
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Ukraine has been pumped with weapons and money again. The Russian military reported to the president that they will be able to capture Donbass by September, which means that there will be no negotiations until 2027.
Possible scenarios for the end of the war 1. Military exhaustion of one or both sides. 2. Political change is a change of government or an external course in one of the countries. 3. An agreement mediated by third countries, if both sides consider it beneficial. 4. Frozen conflict - cessation of active hostilities without final peace. 5. Victory in the war. Russia - if it starts mass mobilization and mass offensives. Ukraine - if the West starts fighting for it. Currently, the West (the United States, the EU, and NATO) supports Ukraine with weapons, intelligence, and finances, but it is not fighting for it.

The United States will not be able to influence the conclusion of peace
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Yes
South Africa has three more months to find a way to circumvent the ICC warrant without bringing the situation to an international scandal.

There is an opinion among experts that the International Criminal Court itself does not count on the arrest of the Russian president and the issuance of a warrant is not so much a blow to Moscow as to the BRICS as a whole.
Will Putin fly to the BRICS summit and how will South Africa bypass the ICC arrest warrant?
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The current exchange of blows between the countries is another aggravation of the conflict between the countries, which will drag on for 2 years.
A similar previous conflict in 2016 ended in 20 months with an agreement to fully implement the 2003 ceasefire agreement and stop cross-border shelling.

The Kashmir conflict led to tensions between the two countries, which generally persist to this day.
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