A truce is expected in November 2025.
The situation is not in favor of Russia. There is no significant success in the offensive of the troops, the country is being bombed unhindered, the last partners are on the verge of breaking off relations, an economic and gasoline crisis is brewing, and money is running out. Therefore, there is a high probability of peace and that Russia will make concessions.

Russia still has the resources for war, but the situation is getting worse. If the truce does not happen before the winter of 2025, there will be very heavy fighting and a very difficult winter for Russia. Ukraine now has long-range missiles and will bomb Russian energy infrastructure.
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In 2024, the transition period to this change will only come.
The sanctions did not discourage the elite's aspirations to the West, but they gave rise to a desire to somehow circumvent the sanctions and quickly cancel or at least weaken part of them. The path to the West for the Russian elite remains the main one, despite the statement of insurmountable differences with the elites of the West. There is simply no other option comparable in terms of profitability. The reduction of the resource base sowed confusion in the elites and required the arbitrator to remove certain players from the number of active clans by force.

When will there be a change of the ruling elite in Russia?
A rapid large-scale purge or replacement of the elite with a new composition? What Is Putin's Choice?
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It was destroyed by CEO Stephen Elop, who came from Microsoft. Instead of developing his own operating system, he insisted on purchasing the Windows Phone operating system.
Nokia's weak point was software, but new platforms were supposed to fix this shortcoming. But starting in late 2010, the company's CEO began to slowly and steadily push Nokia in the other direction, towards abandoning its developments. All divisions of RnD and all the developments of the company were destroyed so that the company could no longer return to the right path.

As a result, Microsoft bought Nokia's mobile business.
Killing Nokia. Candid Confession of a Former Company President, Part Three
Killing Nokia. Candid Confession of a Former Company President, continued
Killing Nokia. Frank confession of the former president of the company
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The operation was designed for two years, just in time for the presidential elections in Russia and Ukraine.
According to experts, the Russian economy will not be able to withstand the war, but a military conflict does.

If the current president of Ukraine does not want to sign a peace treaty, then the future president will sign it. Because everyone is tired of the war.
How long will the Russian economy survive the war with Ukraine?
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