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Why is the war in Ukraine not ending?

Link Copy 2025-11-01 03:50:32

Prediction

Ukraine has been pumped with weapons and money again. The Russian military reported to the president that they will be able to capture Donbass by September, which means that there will be no negotiations until 2027.

Reason

Possible scenarios for the end of the war 1. Military exhaustion of one or both sides. 2. Political change is a change of government or an external course in one of the countries. 3. An agreement mediated by third countries, if both sides consider it beneficial. 4. Frozen conflict - cessation of active hostilities without final peace. 5. Victory in the war. Russia - if it starts mass mobilization and mass offensives. Ukraine - if the West starts fighting for it. Currently, the West (the United States, the EU, and NATO) supports Ukraine with weapons, intelligence, and finances, but it is not fighting for it.

Ukraine has been pumped with weapons and money again. The Russian military reported to the president that they will be able to capture Donbass by September, which means that there will be no negotiations until 2027.

The United States will not be able to influence the conclusion of peace

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Will there be an escalation of the conflict between the PRC and Taiwan?

Link Copy 2023-03-13 14:30:11

Prediction

No, China has decided to annex Taiwan peacefully

Reason

The United States does not intend to fight for Taiwan, the treaty of assistance to Taiwan from the United States boils down to the imposition of embargoes and sanctions. The U.S. tried to escalate the conflict and only impose sanctions. Taiwan's ruling party lost the local election.

No, China has decided to annex Taiwan peacefully

China decides to annex Taiwan peacefully

References

Accuracy 40

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What happens if we start regulating AI?

Link Copy 2026-01-02 14:45:25

Prediction

The Americans are the leaders in AI, and regulation will only increase the technological gap of other countries.

Reason

Inequality between countries will lead to the fact that regions with strict regulation may lag behind less regulated ones. This could lead to a war of humans against robots, like in science fiction movies. Governments are trying to regulate AI, relying on experts, business and academia, but the balance of power is unequal: corporations have more resources and influence, independent specialists have less voice. As a result, the rules often reflect not the public interest, but the interests of the strongest players.

The Americans are the leaders in AI, and regulation will only increase the technological gap of other countries.

The spread of AI is already regulated by American companies that control all key aspects of AI. Video cards, processors, major data centers, scientific developments, etc. are controlled by the Americans.

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When will the offensive of Ukraine to Russia?

Link Copy 2023-05-01 09:46:44

Prediction

May 9, 2023

Reason

Ukraine has been announcing an offensive for a long time. April-May is the best time to attack.

May 9, 2023

Attempts to intensify hostilities on the part of Ukraine have been and will be, otherwise the Western elites cannot justify spending gigantic funds on its armament.

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