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Why is the war in Ukraine not ending?

Link Copy 2025-11-01 03:50:32

Prediction

The most likely scenario for concluding peace is an agreement mediated by third countries, if both sides consider it beneficial, but this option was postponed by the United States, ending negotiations for at least 6 months. The countries' goals are mutually exclusive, and neither side is yet ready to make concessions that the other deems acceptable.

Reason

Possible scenarios for the end of the war 1. Military exhaustion of one or both sides. 2. Political change is a change of government or an external course in one of the countries. 3. An agreement mediated by third countries, if both sides consider it beneficial. 4. Frozen conflict - cessation of active hostilities without final peace. 5. Victory in the war. Russia - if it starts mass mobilization and mass offensives. Ukraine - if the West starts fighting for it. Currently, the West (the United States, the EU, and NATO) supports Ukraine with weapons, intelligence, and finances, but it is not fighting for it.

The most likely scenario for concluding peace is an agreement mediated by third countries, if both sides consider it beneficial, but this option was postponed by the United States, ending negotiations for at least 6 months. The countries' goals are mutually exclusive, and neither side is yet ready to make concessions that the other deems acceptable.

Instead of starting negotiations, Ukraine was again pumped with weapons and money. They probably expect the Russian president to be overthrown.

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Will Russia be able to carry out import substitution of electronics by 2030?

Link Copy 2022-12-12 08:25:20

Prediction

If we are talking about the purchase of obsolete equipment, then yes. If we are talking about the production of semiconductors with 0, then no.

Reason

Lack of specialists. There is a critical dependence of the design and production processes on foreign technologies, including software, and materials (in particular, high-purity chemistry and silicon). Low investment attractiveness of the industry. Lack of production capacity.

If we are talking about the purchase of obsolete equipment, then yes. If we are talking about the production of semiconductors with 0, then no.

3.19 trillion rubles will be enough only to buy obsolete equipment. ASML spent $6 billion a year to become an industry leader. But she had specialists, there were no sanctions and there was no urgent need. In the current situation, the amount needs to be tripled.

References

Accuracy 30

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Why is the price of Bitcoin falling or rising?

Link Copy 2022-05-22 09:32:01

Prediction

At the moment, the price is speculative and depends only on negative and positive news related to the currency

At the moment, the price is speculative and depends only on negative and positive news related to the currency

When will the global migration crisis begin?

Link Copy 2022-10-21 10:12:39

Prediction

The global migration crisis will begin in the fall of 2022

Reason

Food shortage crisis would trigger a major migration wave into Europe from Africa and the Middle East.

The global migration crisis will begin in the fall of 2022

Other countries will also suffer from migration, but in the main the crisis will affect Europe.

References

Accuracy 50

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