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What sanctions are supposed to be lifted from Russia upon signing the peace treaty?

Link Copy 2023-04-27 11:50:30

Prediction

Restriction on flights and restriction on banking transactions

Reason

Even after the signing of the peace treaty, some restrictions may be lifted, but most of them will remain in place. Such a scenario will concern the most “painful” restrictions on Russia. That is, those that will influence the economic development of Russia.

Restriction on flights and restriction on banking transactions

Russia's relations with the West are unlikely to improve even after the conflict with Ukraine is over

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What will be the next president of Russia after Putin?

Link Copy 2023-09-28 09:49:18

Prediction

Politically weak

Reason

All talk about a successor is stopped, no one wants to even think about it. Preparations for the succession are not underway, which means that the new president will be chosen spontaneously and will protect the personal interests of the ruling elite, and not the whole country. The president from alternative parties will not be allowed to win.

Politically weak

Nothing will change in the country with the change of the president. The country will continue to sell energy resources abroad. The new president will make decisions based on personal gain, hiding behind the interests of the country.

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Will US banks fall after a 0.25 rate hike?

Link Copy 2024-03-09 06:03:32

Prediction

No

Reason

The Fed would not raise rates for no reason. They're saving the dollar. As they said, the US financial system is stable, which means that even if small banks go bankrupt, they will be bought by larger banks.

No

The increase in rates and the export of gold from the United States does not speak about the stability of the American financial system. But in the short term, everything is stable and under control.

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What will happen if Ukraine wins the war?

Link Copy 2023-01-11 05:38:29

Prediction

Russia will have to pay hundreds of billions to compensate for the physical damage caused by the invasion. Military restrictions of the Russian Navy: no Russian Navy in the Black, Azov and Baltic Seas for 50 years. Military restrictions of the Russian army: from all its northern, western and southern borders, Russia must withdraw troops at least 100 km. War crimes: Russia must be punished for its wartime atrocities. Nuclear weapons: Under the new treaty with NATO, Russia must immediately agree to reduce its nuclear weapons to a quantity and quality no greater than that of the United States, and agree to inspections by NATO to ensure this compliance.

Reason

The scenario is plausible if Ukraine is supported long enough or fought on the side of Ukraine.

Russia will have to pay hundreds of billions to compensate for the physical damage caused by the invasion. Military restrictions of the Russian Navy: no Russian Navy in the Black, Azov and Baltic Seas for 50 years. Military restrictions of the Russian army: from all its northern, western and southern borders, Russia must withdraw troops at least 100 km. War crimes: Russia must be punished for its wartime atrocities. Nuclear weapons: Under the new treaty with NATO, Russia must immediately agree to reduce its nuclear weapons to a quantity and quality no greater than that of the United States, and agree to inspections by NATO to ensure this compliance.

All that stops the West from these scenarios is Russia's possession of nuclear weapons.

References

Accuracy 20

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