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When will Russia capture Odessa?

Link Copy 2024-02-01 12:52:56

Prediction

The fighting will begin in the fall of 2024

Reason

In the case of significant successes in the Donbas and near Kharkov, there is a very high probability of launching an offensive against Nikolaev, followed by its capture and access to the outskirts of Odessa at the end of summer. In connection with the allocation of 51 billion euros of aid, military operations will begin with renewed vigor, and a new Ukrainian offensive has already been announced in order to delay the advance of Russian troops.

The fighting will begin in the fall of 2024

Ukraine's loss of Odessa and the surrounding territories would mean turning into a completely isolated state, which is also blocked from the north, east and south by unfriendly countries (Russia-Belarus-Transnistria).

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Why are so many wars happening right now?

Link Copy 2026-03-14 15:04:30

Prediction

Because of the recession, because of the expectation of quick victories, because of ambitions

Reason

Sometimes war is used to distract from internal problems. The struggle for resources (oil, gas, water, rare metals) intensifies. This is especially noticeable in regions with unstable politics. Very often wars begin when a country's leadership believes that victory will be quick and cheap. For example, Russia-Ukraine. Sometimes countries start a war when they believe the international situation is favorable to them. Like the USA-Iran or USA-Venezuela. Regional conflicts and escalation. Like India-Pakistan, Israel-Gaza Strip, Cambodian-Thai conflict, Afghan-Pakistani war.

Because of the recession, because of the expectation of quick victories, because of ambitions

After the end of the Cold War in 1991, the world became less predictable. Previously, two superpowers — the United States of America and the Soviet Union — restrained each other. Now several centers of power are emerging: China, Russia, the USA, regional powers like Iran and Turkey. When forces are distributed among many players, there are usually more conflicts.

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What will an armed conflict between Cambodia and Vietnam lead to?

Link Copy 2025-07-26 14:55:59

Prediction

In the near future, the clash will be rolled back to its previous state – to the beginning of the shelling.

Reason

The armies of both countries are not ready for a major war. It is not beneficial for the sides to continue the conflict, as their economies rely on tourism, and it will soon be resolved.

In the near future, the clash will be rolled back to its previous state – to the beginning of the shelling.

Thailand is a highly pro-American country and has been supported by the US since the Vietnam War. As for Cambodia, it is within China's sphere of influence. US-China relations are currently at a stage of increasing tension; the trade war has been set aside but is by no means over, and there is a noticeable escalation in the situation in Taiwan and the South China Sea. Therefore, Cambodia decided that China will support it now.

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What will happen if all countries start mining lithium at once?

Link Copy 2023-05-21 13:56:04

Prediction

The price of lithium will fall, and in countries where it is mined, environmental problems will begin

Reason

Since the beginning of the decade, lithium has risen in price by hundreds of percent and will be in short supply for more than one year due to the needs of the energy transition, which is actively going on in the West and in China. In the near future, Europe will be heavily dependent on external supplies of lithium.

The price of lithium will fall, and in countries where it is mined, environmental problems will begin

All countries want a piece of the lithium pie

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