The fighting will begin in the fall of 2024
In the case of significant successes in the Donbas and near Kharkov, there is a very high probability of launching an offensive against Nikolaev, followed by its capture and access to the outskirts of Odessa at the end of summer. In connection with the allocation of 51 billion euros of aid, military operations will begin with renewed vigor, and a new Ukrainian offensive has already been announced in order to delay the advance of Russian troops.

Ukraine's loss of Odessa and the surrounding territories would mean turning into a completely isolated state, which is also blocked from the north, east and south by unfriendly countries (Russia-Belarus-Transnistria).
The Battle for Odessa (2022)
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Extend its monopoly on solving its political and economic problems at the expense of the rest of the world for another 20-30 years
On October 12, 2022, the United States adopted and unveiled a new national security strategy, which defines the main priorities and goals of US foreign policy and military construction. Opponents in the new defense strategy are called Russia and China.

In the current US military strategy, Russia is declared the main culprit for the loss of world domination and privileged military-economic position in the world, the main obstacle to the preservation of world dominance and the main adversary, and China is a competitor in the long term.
Press Release by J. Friedman
United States National Security Strategy
Physically eliminate an undesirable regime
Compete with China, contain Russia
Accuracy 40
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No, raise the debt ceiling
Both Republicans and Democrats are in favor of raising the national debt ceiling, but Republicans demand to cut spending

In 2011, it was possible to agree on raising the amount of debt only three days before the “deadline”. The compromise was eventually reached after President Barack Obama's administration agreed to cut defense and other spending.
The US threatened to default on June 1: how it happened and what to expect
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Russia is moving forward and seizing territories that already formally belong to the United States.
The United States has concluded a contract with Ukraine, according to which the minerals located on the territory of Ukraine belong to the United States. Russia is moving forward and seizing these territories. Therefore, we need to respond urgently.

Therefore, even after the presentation of the ultimatum, nothing will change. All the sanctions that could affect something have already been introduced. The United States cannot influence other countries by scaring them with duties. The United States could not impose duties on China. Russia will not comply with the terms of the ultimatum.
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