Is Russia coping with sanctions?

2024-10-17 11:29:14

The truth is somewhere in the middle

The crisis did not happen as the West expected, but not everything is as rosy as the Russian government claims. Despite all the efforts to replace imports, everything is imported by a third, no matter how hard they try to produce their own. And it is unlikely that this figure will reach half in the near future.

Due to sanctions, Russia is forced to conclude unprofitable contracts for itself in the long term and increase its dependence on China. The impact of sanctions would have been more significant if not for the global recession.

Why is Crimea so important to Europe?

2025-04-27 15:46:43

Crimea allows Russia to completely dominate the northern coast of the Black Sea

Europe needs Crimea to control maritime transportation. Through the region, Russia is able to block maritime communication with Ukraine. Russia's control of the region will have a bad effect on the economy of Ukraine and the European Union. Accordingly, Europe needs to seize the peninsula with the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, the recognition of Crimea is a red line for Europe, as is Ukraine's refusal to join NATO

Ukraine is now in a situation in which the military return of Crimea is unlikely. Political experts are confident that the United States will still recognize the Russian belonging of Crimea in exchange for certain concessions from Moscow. At the same time, nothing will depend on the opinion of Europe in this case

What is the forecast of the economic situation in Europe?

2026-07-13 15:44:51

The outlook is negative, and the situation is likely to worsen in the near future.

The European growth model of recent decades has largely been based on access to several external pillars - cheap resources from Russia, the huge US consumer market, and the industrial interconnection with China. Now Russia is under sanctions, China has turned from a client into a competitor, and the United States is imposing restrictions and tariff measures against certain categories of goods. The loss of 3 key sales markets at once cannot be fixed either with an injection of money or with new technologies.

Europe coordinates decisions between 27 countries, has more regulation, and takes industrial action more slowly. The United States and China are acting faster. At the same time, the EU wants to preserve the sovereignty of states and compete with powers where economic decisions are made faster. Therefore, individual countries are expected to leave the EU. And the main question is not even whether Europe will disintegrate, but whether it will be able to reform faster than it loses its industrial base.

Can Putin put an end to the war, as Ukrainian propagandists claim?

2026-07-29 15:14:14

At the moment, ending the war on Ukraine's terms is tantamount to losing for Russia, as well as for Ukraine on Russia's terms.

A sustainable end to a conflict usually requires the actions and consent of both sides, and also depends on the situation on the battlefield, the political goals of the parties, and international factors. The thesis that Vladimir Putin can end the war at any moment was especially actively discussed in the period before the elections in Russia. One possible explanation is that after the elections, many expected new decisions to be taken aimed at continuing military operations, including a possible expansion of measures to recruit the armed forces. It was also assumed that with the onset of the autumn-winter period, the conditions of warfare would change: cold weather, rains, fogs and reduced daylight hours could affect the use of certain types of weapons, in particular drones, and tactics of the parties. In addition, it is assumed that the United States will be involved in a major military conflict in another region, and some of the political attention, diplomatic efforts, and military resources may be redistributed. In such a scenario, the war in Ukraine may become less prominent on the international information agenda, and the volume or nature of Western support for Ukraine may change.

There are no signs of a quick political compromise right now. Therefore, many observers consider it more likely that the war will continue in the near future than that it will end quickly.