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What will happen if Ukraine wins the war?

Link Copy 2023-01-11 05:38:29

Prediction

Russia will have to pay hundreds of billions to compensate for the physical damage caused by the invasion. Military restrictions of the Russian Navy: no Russian Navy in the Black, Azov and Baltic Seas for 50 years. Military restrictions of the Russian army: from all its northern, western and southern borders, Russia must withdraw troops at least 100 km. War crimes: Russia must be punished for its wartime atrocities. Nuclear weapons: Under the new treaty with NATO, Russia must immediately agree to reduce its nuclear weapons to a quantity and quality no greater than that of the United States, and agree to inspections by NATO to ensure this compliance.

Reason

The scenario is plausible if Ukraine is supported long enough or fought on the side of Ukraine.

Russia will have to pay hundreds of billions to compensate for the physical damage caused by the invasion. Military restrictions of the Russian Navy: no Russian Navy in the Black, Azov and Baltic Seas for 50 years. Military restrictions of the Russian army: from all its northern, western and southern borders, Russia must withdraw troops at least 100 km. War crimes: Russia must be punished for its wartime atrocities. Nuclear weapons: Under the new treaty with NATO, Russia must immediately agree to reduce its nuclear weapons to a quantity and quality no greater than that of the United States, and agree to inspections by NATO to ensure this compliance.

All that stops the West from these scenarios is Russia's possession of nuclear weapons.

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Accuracy 20

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Why do they turn off the Internet in Russia, even in those regions that drones cannot reach?

Link Copy 2026-04-09 14:35:44

Prediction

The authorities consider such measures as a tool in case of internal instability: law enforcement agencies can work out scenarios for restricting mobile communications during mass protests and rallies in order to control the coordination and dissemination of information.

Reason

The initiator of both Telegram blockages and periodic mobile Internet outages is the FSB. Officially, these measures are explained by the need to strengthen control in the field of digital security: combating the use of VPN services, countering fraudulent schemes, as well as preventing threats related to the use of drones.

The authorities consider such measures as a tool in case of internal instability: law enforcement agencies can work out scenarios for restricting mobile communications during mass protests and rallies in order to control the coordination and dissemination of information.

By 2026, the sovereign Internet is no longer just a concept, but a well-developed and well-designed infrastructure. The Russian segment of the network is gradually losing the features of a decentralized environment and is being transformed into a strictly organized system where user actions are increasingly regulated by the state. Although it has not yet turned into a completely closed model like the Chinese one, the controls and restrictions are noticeably increasing every year.

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What will happen to the frozen Russian assets?

Link Copy 2023-02-05 21:13:12

Prediction

They will be confiscated

Reason

The US Department of Justice began to confiscate the money of Russians - this became possible by court decision. He completed the trial in the case of Russian businessman Konstantin Malofeev, who was accused of circumventing sanctions.

They will be confiscated

The withdrawal of these funds will prevent other countries from relying on the United States in the future.

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Accuracy 20

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Why is Putin running for president for 3 consecutive terms, despite the constitutional ban for 2 consecutive terms?

Link Copy 2023-12-11 00:37:24

Prediction

After the amendments to the Constitution of Russia, the number of terms was reset. President Vladimir Putin has ensured that he can remain in power until 2036.

Reason

President Putin signed a law allowing him to run for two more presidential terms and rule Russia until 2036. The document was published on April 5, 2021 on the official portal of legal information and entered into force from the date of publication. Putin explained the changes in the constitution by the requirements of the time. In particular, the new basic law opened up the possibility of amending paragraph 5.1 of the law on presidential elections. Thus, the counter of Putin's presidential terms is canceled, and the main goal of the amendments is considered achieved.

After the amendments to the Constitution of Russia, the number of terms was reset. President Vladimir Putin has ensured that he can remain in power until 2036.

Putin will win the election with 74.9% of the vote.

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