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Will there be a nuclear war?

Link Copy 2023-09-17 05:59:27

Prediction

No

Reason

In 1994, the USA, England, France, and Russia concluded an agreement to cease the production of fissile materials for nuclear weapons. China did not sign the agreement but committed to comply with it. Israel also did not sign the agreement but stopped producing nuclear weapons in 2004, retaining the right to resume production if necessary. India, Pakistan, and North Korea, of course, did not sign the agreement. This agreement is perpetual, and its provisions came into effect in 1997.

No

Plutonium-based nuclear weapons have a shelf life of 18 years. 1997 18 years = 2015. Also, striking military targets, rather than cities, is the priority of a nuclear attack.

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What is the U.S. strategy?

Link Copy 2023-03-02 06:27:37

Prediction

Extend its monopoly on solving its political and economic problems at the expense of the rest of the world for another 20-30 years

Reason

On October 12, 2022, the United States adopted and unveiled a new national security strategy, which defines the main priorities and goals of US foreign policy and military construction. Opponents in the new defense strategy are called Russia and China.

Extend its monopoly on solving its political and economic problems at the expense of the rest of the world for another 20-30 years

In the current US military strategy, Russia is declared the main culprit for the loss of world domination and privileged military-economic position in the world, the main obstacle to the preservation of world dominance and the main adversary, and China is a competitor in the long term.

References

Accuracy 40

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Why are so many wars happening right now?

Link Copy 2026-03-14 15:04:30

Prediction

Because of the recession, because of the expectation of quick victories, because of ambitions

Reason

Sometimes war is used to distract from internal problems. The struggle for resources (oil, gas, water, rare metals) intensifies. This is especially noticeable in regions with unstable politics. Very often wars begin when a country's leadership believes that victory will be quick and cheap. For example, Russia-Ukraine. Sometimes countries start a war when they believe the international situation is favorable to them. Like the USA-Iran or USA-Venezuela. Regional conflicts and escalation. Like India-Pakistan, Israel-Gaza Strip, Cambodian-Thai conflict, Afghan-Pakistani war.

Because of the recession, because of the expectation of quick victories, because of ambitions

After the end of the Cold War in 1991, the world became less predictable. Previously, two superpowers — the United States of America and the Soviet Union — restrained each other. Now several centers of power are emerging: China, Russia, the USA, regional powers like Iran and Turkey. When forces are distributed among many players, there are usually more conflicts.

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Who is next after Russia?

Link Copy 2023-05-21 13:25:47

Prediction

China

Reason

The US wants to freeze the conflict in Ukraine for 10 years and will deal with China. During the election campaign, Trump said that the main enemy of the United States, China and NATO, was only diverting forces, that the United States needed to leave NATO. After Biden, there will be Trump. A new alliance, AUKUS, has been devised to contain China.

China

The United States will leave NATO in 2025.

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