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Will there be a nuclear war?

Link Copy 2023-09-17 05:59:27

Prediction

No

Reason

In 1994, the USA, England, France, and Russia concluded an agreement to cease the production of fissile materials for nuclear weapons. China did not sign the agreement but committed to comply with it. Israel also did not sign the agreement but stopped producing nuclear weapons in 2004, retaining the right to resume production if necessary. India, Pakistan, and North Korea, of course, did not sign the agreement. This agreement is perpetual, and its provisions came into effect in 1997.

No

Plutonium-based nuclear weapons have a shelf life of 18 years. 1997 18 years = 2015. Also, striking military targets, rather than cities, is the priority of a nuclear attack.

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What Happens After Trump's Tariffs Are Imposed?

Link Copy 2025-04-04 15:57:43

Prediction

A global recession is expected. Mass layoffs and cost cuts will begin.

Reason

The GDP of the United States (24%) is almost a quarter of the world GDP. The United States has an impact on the entire world economy. International trade in 50% of cases is conducted in dollars. If the U.S. buys less because of tariffs, it will cause a downturn in the entire global economy in the short term. In the long term, confidence in the U.S. and the dollar will fall, and the focus will shift to China and the yuan as the world's second-largest economy. This whole process will be painful and will be accompanied by massive cost cuts, optimization of business processes, layoffs and closure of enterprises. The United States itself will suffer greatly and will not be able to recover from such a policy, since its factories are distributed around the world and depend on the supply of components and raw materials.

A global recession is expected. Mass layoffs and cost cuts will begin.

From April 3, 2025, 25% duties on car imports will come into effect, and by May 3, 2025, on auto parts manufactured outside the United States. From April 5, 2025, the minimum basic customs duty of 10% will come into force. From April 9, 2025, the rest of the tariffs will come into effect. The minimum base tariff of 10% will be applied to all countries. Most likely, this will all end after Trump's change as president in 2029. On April 8, Trump introduced a 3-month delay for those countries that did not impose retaliatory tariffs.

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Is the estimate of browser market share realistic?

Link Copy 2024-02-25 23:19:47

Prediction

Numbers are probabilities

Reason

It is not possible to view the actual data to verify the calculations. There is a cheating of the results. Only popular counter sites are taken into account, and sites without counters are not taken into account.

Numbers are probabilities

For example, Chrome folds Chome Mobile, Chrome, Web View and gets 56%

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Accuracy 20

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How the global market share of mobile OS will change?

Link Copy 2022-08-15 14:22:23

Prediction

Android market share raise for 71,85 to 73,85%. iOS market share down for 27,5 to 25,5%.

Reason

Due to the crisis will not buy expensive smartphones

Android market share raise for 71,85  to 73,85%. iOS market share down for 27,5  to 25,5%.

Currently Android and iOS control 99,35 of market share. Android - 71,85%. iOS - 27,5%. Other - 0,65%

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