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Will Putin change in 2024?

Link Copy 2023-06-28 12:33:56

Prediction

No, he will stay.

Reason

A source close to the Kremlin, who wished to remain anonymous, spoke about Vladimir Putin's plans. He denied rumors that the allegedly incumbent President plans to leave his post. He assures that other candidates are out of the question.

No, he will stay.

After the elections, little will change in the country

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When and why will there be a war between China and Russia?

Link Copy 2023-09-11 12:26:54

Prediction

In 2055. Because of the Russian territories.

Reason

When the USSR collapsed, Western goods flooded into the Russian market, and for 30 years they practically captured the entire market, receiving Russian resources in return. In 2022, Europe and the United States left the Russian market, and it turned out that the products could not be assembled at Russian factories, since they used foreign components that were not manufactured in Russia. Instead of independent development, the Russian authorities again gave the entire market to China. In 30 years, the situation will repeat. But China is not Europe and will not give up its factories just like that.

In 2055. Because of the Russian territories.

Most likely, the scenario of the collapse of the USSR will be played out again, but this time Russia will collapse. The president will be killed, then there will be referendums of disconnection from Russia and joining China. Russia will restore its territories by military means.

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Will Russia be able to carry out import substitution of electronics by 2030?

Link Copy 2022-12-12 08:25:20

Prediction

If we are talking about the purchase of obsolete equipment, then yes. If we are talking about the production of semiconductors with 0, then no.

Reason

Lack of specialists. There is a critical dependence of the design and production processes on foreign technologies, including software, and materials (in particular, high-purity chemistry and silicon). Low investment attractiveness of the industry. Lack of production capacity.

If we are talking about the purchase of obsolete equipment, then yes. If we are talking about the production of semiconductors with 0, then no.

3.19 trillion rubles will be enough only to buy obsolete equipment. ASML spent $6 billion a year to become an industry leader. But she had specialists, there were no sanctions and there was no urgent need. In the current situation, the amount needs to be tripled.

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Accuracy 30

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Is Dmitry Medvedev's forecast for 2023 correct?

Link Copy 2022-12-30 04:42:35

Prediction

No

Reason

There are many flaws in the forecast. In 2024, elections in the United States will be held in November. Energy prices depend on many factors, such as supply and demand, availability and number of suppliers. For such prices to appear, someone must leave the energy market. Russia itself? All decisions in the European Union on accession are made for years and simply cannot be agreed in a year.

No

This is just a favorable forecast for Russia, which could still be believed if it were announced at least for 3 years. Also, the forecast does not specify Russia itself, as well as China.

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Accuracy 20

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