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How will the attempt on Trump's life affect the presidential race?

Link Copy 2024-07-14 05:35:56

Prediction

An assassination attempt on Donald Trump will greatly enhance his chances of winning

Reason

Before the assassination attempt, Trump's supporters considered him a hero who had to face constant attacks from his enemies - now this image will become even stronger. The attack will consolidate the image of a martyr for the Republican, and a photo with a raised fist will become a symbol of the elections.

An assassination attempt on Donald Trump will greatly enhance his chances of winning

The assassination attempt was preceded by a series of political victories by Trump. On June 27, he won the debate with Joe Biden.

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What will happen if Ukraine wins the war?

Link Copy 2023-01-11 05:38:29

Prediction

Russia will have to pay hundreds of billions to compensate for the physical damage caused by the invasion. Military restrictions of the Russian Navy: no Russian Navy in the Black, Azov and Baltic Seas for 50 years. Military restrictions of the Russian army: from all its northern, western and southern borders, Russia must withdraw troops at least 100 km. War crimes: Russia must be punished for its wartime atrocities. Nuclear weapons: Under the new treaty with NATO, Russia must immediately agree to reduce its nuclear weapons to a quantity and quality no greater than that of the United States, and agree to inspections by NATO to ensure this compliance.

Reason

The scenario is plausible if Ukraine is supported long enough or fought on the side of Ukraine.

Russia will have to pay hundreds of billions to compensate for the physical damage caused by the invasion. Military restrictions of the Russian Navy: no Russian Navy in the Black, Azov and Baltic Seas for 50 years. Military restrictions of the Russian army: from all its northern, western and southern borders, Russia must withdraw troops at least 100 km. War crimes: Russia must be punished for its wartime atrocities. Nuclear weapons: Under the new treaty with NATO, Russia must immediately agree to reduce its nuclear weapons to a quantity and quality no greater than that of the United States, and agree to inspections by NATO to ensure this compliance.

All that stops the West from these scenarios is Russia's possession of nuclear weapons.

References

Accuracy 20

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When will the war between the United States and Israel with Iran end?

Link Copy 2026-03-29 12:54:08

Prediction

The end of May, if there is no ground operation

Reason

The United States is forced to reach an agreement with Iran. Because oil prices are going up. No one wanted to fight Iran instead of the United States, including NATO allies. Trump was absolutely certain of a blitzkrieg with Iran, but it quickly became clear that the war had not gone according to plan. There was no quick victory. We will have to negotiate and pay reparations. Otherwise, oil prices will skyrocket to $250 per barrel, at the current 120 and 60 before the war. The capture of Kharq will not only lead to increased tensions throughout the Persian Gulf, including possible attacks on the energy infrastructure of the countries of the region, but will actually bury any chance of an agreement on ending the war with Tehran in the foreseeable future. Even now, these chances are extremely low, primarily because of Iran's complete distrust of the aggressors, and if American troops land on Iranian territory, they will disappear completely.

The end of May, if there is no ground operation

Trump is hinting at ending the war by May 15, 2026, before meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing, as the war in the Middle East directly affects China's interests.

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Can Bloomberg forecasts be trusted?

Link Copy 2023-04-05 07:15:35

Prediction

No, Bloomberg is currently engaged in the formation of public opinion.

Reason

Once upon a time, Western rating agencies such as Bloomberg, Goldman and Flich were truly independent. It was then that they gained their popularity. Now these economic agencies are largely politicized and work at the request of governments, or rather economic clans, whose interests are protected by governments. Even the world's stock exchanges do not react much to the forecasts of these agencies.

No, Bloomberg is currently engaged in the formation of public opinion.

Bloomberg, a privately held company based in New York, is one of the top two providers of information for the financial markets. The media are actively reprinting all Bloomberg's forecasts for the economy, and traders are guided during the game on the foreign exchange market, including the statements of this company.

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