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Why does the state not fight speculators in the stock market, because this is, in fact, fraud and air sales?

Link Copy 2023-10-16 08:49:08

Prediction

The speculator does not violate the law and pays taxes

Reason

If you remove the exchange mechanisms, you will have to think about giving something in return. And officials don't like to work. Moreover, taxes come from the exchange.

The speculator does not violate the law and pays taxes

The justification of the exchange is a very good mechanism in terms of fairness. Money flows there from the stupid to the smart, from the greedy to the moderate, from cowards to the persistent, from the nervous to the patient

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Why is the Russian economy growing despite the sanctions?

Link Copy 2024-05-09 15:00:38

Prediction

Sanctions are ineffective

Reason

Russian oil and LNG are still bought only through third countries. The development of the military industry and the reorientation of trade to Asian countries support the Russian economy. The Russian market, liberated by Western companies, has the potential for growth. There are no secondary sanctions.

Sanctions are ineffective

In the long term, sanctions will hinder the growth of the Russian economy and lead to stagnation. For example, there is already a shortage in the labor market, inflation and the impact of technological sanctions. The vivid economic picture of Russia hides dangerous compromises made in pursuit of short-term benefits. Future generations will pay a heavy price for the current situation. However, the Kremlin only cares about the present.

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Why is there no change for the better in Kazakhstan under the new president?

Link Copy 2023-11-16 09:25:30

Prediction

Nursultan Nazarbayev is gone, but not to the end

Reason

Most appointments are made for authoritarian, clan, and patronage purposes. This means that a certain person is appointed to the post of regional akim or minister, not so much because he is good at what he does and has the right level of professionalism and experience, but because he will definitely do what he is told, what the president ordered him to do. Thus, the ministers became extras who simply supported the main character, the president.

Nursultan Nazarbayev is gone, but not to the end

In simple terms, in order to give additional opportunities to someone (for example, small and medium-sized businesses, which are currently being talked about a lot), you need to take these opportunities away from those who use them incorrectly or incorrectly. And this already smacks of a redistribution of power. That is, in fact, there is a question of reducing the caste of untouchables and the resources controlled by it.

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What to expect from Trump?

Link Copy 2024-11-29 08:40:09

Prediction

Trump will impose his demands and end up quarreling with everyone. He has not yet taken office, but has already promised to raise duties on non-American goods. He is expected to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, reduce spending, and escalate the trade war with China. European interests will be completely ignored.

Reason

If the U.S. imposes tariffs of 60 percent on all imports from China and raises tariffs on imports from other countries, lowers personal and corporate taxes, and deports millions of illegal immigrants, we can expect lower U.S. output, increased inflationary pressures, and increased market volatility. The U.S. economy has a strong impact on the global economy because of its size: the U.S. accounts for more than a quarter of global GDP. As a result, in the next three years, the growth rate of the world economy will decline by 2-3% per year. With global GDP growing at about 3% per year, it can be assumed that the world will stagnate at best and recession at worst.

Trump will impose his demands and end up quarreling with everyone. He has not yet taken office, but has already promised to raise duties on non-American goods. He is expected to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, reduce spending, and escalate the trade war with China. European interests will be completely ignored.

Most likely, after his rule, few people will talk to America. Non-U.S. companies will have to look for other markets because they will be pressured by tariffs. South Korea is already subsidizing its chip companies due to the start of Trump's rule.

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