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What are the causes of modern wars?

Link Copy 2023-11-01 01:54:16

Prediction

Economic interest, resources, territory

Reason

There may be other reasons, but whatever they may be, there is always an economic interest in all wars, even if the parties to the conflict talk about other, more noble reasons.

Economic interest, resources, territory

Throughout history, there have been wars on the territory of different states, but at the moment the development of technology has reached such a level that war leads to the largest human and economic losses in history.

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When will Africa be united?

Link Copy 2023-06-15 14:14:31

Prediction

In 2064

Reason

The African Union is fighting for the unification of Africa today. It is an intergovernmental organization that has been leading its history since 1963. The union includes all 55 countries of the Black Continent. It is planned to create three financial institutions: the African Central Bank (planned to be created by 2028), the African Monetary Fund, the African Investment Bank.

In 2064

So far, the association looks like the European Union

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What will the US achieve with its demands regarding Greenland, Canada, and the like?

Link Copy 2026-02-05 06:12:50

Prediction

The United States will achieve greater control, access to resources, increased military presence, and political dependence of its allies.

Reason

The U.S. will not succeed in annexing Greenland, obtaining territorial concessions from Canada, or achieving a legitimate redrawing of borders, but even without purchasing territory, the U.S. can secure profitable contracts, expanded bases, and exclusive access to natural resources. In the long term, this will lead to a quiet distancing from Washington, an increase in autonomous defense policies in the EU and Canada, as well as a reduced willingness to automatically support the U.S. during crises. In 10-15 years, this could have repercussions in Asia, harm American interests at sea, and weaken the dollar as a 'currency of trust.'

The United States will achieve greater control, access to resources, increased military presence, and political dependence of its allies.

Canada and Denmark are soft allies who publicly express outrage but in practice give way. In doing so, the US itself is pushing the world toward the formula 'Better to have several centers of power than one unpredictable one.'

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What is the reason for the start of the war with Iran?

Link Copy 2026-03-08 07:38:27

Prediction

The struggle for world domination

Reason

The primary goal is to destroy stability in the region. The chaos makes the region dependent on an external arbitrator (the United States), without whom local players cannot ensure their safety. The destruction of the digital and logistics hubs of the Persian Gulf undermines the region's status as a secure center of trade and finance. This will lead to an outflow of capital and technology to other regions (Europe, Southeast Asia), which will weaken the economic independence of the Arab monarchies and increase their dependence on the United States. The secondary goal is to slow down China. China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil. Depriving Beijing of this resource or sharply increasing the cost of its delivery due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is hitting Chinese industry. For the United States, weakening the Iran—China link and controlling energy arteries is a strategic priority. However, it is worth considering the risks of such a strategy.: it can rally the opponents of the United States (China, Russia, Iran) into an even closer military-economic bloc and accelerate the process of de-dollarization of the global economy, as countries will see the dollar and the American security system as a direct threat to their existence. The full picture includes: Economics: Saving the dollar and the profits of the military industrial complex. Logistics: Blocking alternative trade routes (Russia-India-China). Technology: Destroying the competitor's potential. Domestic politics: A distraction from the problems in the USA and Israel. The reset of the petrodollar and the preservation of the dollar's hegemony. This is perhaps the most profound economic reason. The bottom line: In recent years, Iran, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries have actively discussed switching to payments for oil in yuan, rubles or local currencies, bypassing the US dollar. This threatened the foundation of the American economy, which is based on the demand for the dollar as a reserve currency.

The struggle for world domination

In his first term, Trump unilaterally tore up the agreement with Iran, but due to the coronavirus, he was unable to carry out the plans to the end.

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