2024-05-09 15:00:38

Sanctions are ineffective

Russian oil and LNG are still bought only through third countries. The development of the military industry and the reorientation of trade to Asian countries support the Russian economy. The Russian market, liberated by Western companies, has the potential for growth. There are no secondary sanctions.

In the long term, sanctions will hinder the growth of the Russian economy and lead to stagnation. For example, there is already a shortage in the labor market, inflation and the impact of technological sanctions. The vivid economic picture of Russia hides dangerous compromises made in pursuit of short-term benefits. Future generations will pay a heavy price for the current situation. However, the Kremlin only cares about the present.

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2023-04-27 11:50:30

Restriction on flights and restriction on banking transactions

Even after the signing of the peace treaty, some restrictions may be lifted, but most of them will remain in place. Such a scenario will concern the most “painful” restrictions on Russia. That is, those that will influence the economic development of Russia.

Russia's relations with the West are unlikely to improve even after the conflict with Ukraine is over

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2026-06-12 01:41:08

In short, an increase in oil production

They are completely satisfied with the situation with the closure of the Ozmur Strait and the shortage of oil. The price ceiling has been set at $60 per barrel since the beginning of the year, but the closure of the strait increased the demand for oil to 100.

The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC, but did not withdraw, as participation in OPEC is still more profitable than exiting it.

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2026-03-29 12:54:08

There will be no ground operation, but there will be no serious negotiations, at least not until the end of the summer.

The United States is forced to reach an agreement with Iran. Because oil prices are going up. No one wanted to fight Iran instead of the United States, including NATO allies. Trump was absolutely certain of a blitzkrieg with Iran, but it quickly became clear that the war had not gone according to plan. There was no quick victory. We will have to negotiate and pay reparations. Otherwise, oil prices will skyrocket to $250 per barrel, at the current 120 and 60 before the war. The capture of Kharq will not only lead to increased tensions throughout the Persian Gulf, including possible attacks on the energy infrastructure of the countries of the region, but will actually bury any chance of an agreement on ending the war with Tehran in the foreseeable future. Even now, these chances are extremely low, primarily because of Iran's complete distrust of the aggressors, and if American troops land on Iranian territory, they will disappear completely.

Trump will negotiate oil purchases from the United States at a meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 15, and there will be no talk of ending the war. Most likely, China will think and then refuse, citing the country's interests in the region, and Europe will also put pressure on Trump inside the country, so we will have to negotiate.

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