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Will the Ukraine-Russia summit help end the war?

Link Copy 2024-03-13 10:03:14

Prediction

The summit will not take place

Reason

Ukraine does not have the ability to stop military operations on its own. Negotiations with Russia are prohibited by law, the new president could lift this ban, but the elections have been postponed until the end of the war.

The summit will not take place

Russia hopes to end the hostilities with peaceful negotiations, it had the opportunity to kill Zelensky and capture Kiev. The issue will change after the change of the US president to Trump. If Biden stays, the EU will be forced to go to war with Russia.

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Will there even be a 3rd World War?

Link Copy 2025-05-05 02:17:03

Prediction

There will be military action, but without a declaration of war!

Reason

The declaration of war entails legal consequences such as the mobilization of the population, the imposition of curfews, and others. If war is not declared, but simply fighting is underway, this gives more room for maneuver. Declaring war on countries in conflict is not accepted and is very dangerous. Let's recall Iraq or Yugoslavia, there was no state of war there, everything was done by operations to enforce peace or impose democracy. But by no means a declaration of war. Without declaring war, a State can be recognized as an aggressor that invaded the territory of a neighbor with whom it had good neighborly relations, and it recognized the people's right to self-determination.

There will be military action, but without a declaration of war!

Declaring war on a state can have negative consequences. In this case, economic ties with other countries, even with those that support them, immediately begin to crumble. Thus, sanctions may be imposed, and the implementation of UN sanctions will be closely monitored. This can also have consequences up to and including expulsion from the UN. And yes, a country that has been declared at war can be officially helped with the approval of the United Nations, so to speak, by the whole world.

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Will Putin change in 2024?

Link Copy 2023-06-28 12:33:56

Prediction

No, he will stay.

Reason

A source close to the Kremlin, who wished to remain anonymous, spoke about Vladimir Putin's plans. He denied rumors that the allegedly incumbent President plans to leave his post. He assures that other candidates are out of the question.

No, he will stay.

After the elections, little will change in the country

References
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Does it even make sense to trust rating agencies?

Link Copy 2022-06-11 13:52:55

Prediction

No. Agencies do not cope with the basic task - they cannot objectively assess the creditworthiness of the borrower.

Reason

The company that is evaluated pays for the valuation. There is no transparent methodology for calculating the rating that can be verified. Rating agencies are not responsible for the ratings given. Geopolitical interests influence the ratings of agencies.

No. Agencies do not cope with the basic task - they cannot objectively assess the creditworthiness of the borrower.

Usually, rating agencies seriously overestimate ratings for the country they come from.

References

Accuracy 40

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