The summit will not take place
Ukraine does not have the ability to stop military operations on its own. Negotiations with Russia are prohibited by law, the new president could lift this ban, but the elections have been postponed until the end of the war.

Russia hopes to end the hostilities with peaceful negotiations, it had the opportunity to kill Zelensky and capture Kiev. The issue will change after the change of the US president to Trump. If Biden stays, the EU will be forced to go to war with Russia.
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Yes
South Africa has three more months to find a way to circumvent the ICC warrant without bringing the situation to an international scandal.

There is an opinion among experts that the International Criminal Court itself does not count on the arrest of the Russian president and the issuance of a warrant is not so much a blow to Moscow as to the BRICS as a whole.
Will Putin fly to the BRICS summit and how will South Africa bypass the ICC arrest warrant?
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The end of May, if there is no ground operation
The United States is forced to reach an agreement with Iran. Because oil prices are going up. No one wanted to fight Iran instead of the United States, including NATO allies. Trump was absolutely certain of a blitzkrieg with Iran, but it quickly became clear that the war had not gone according to plan. There was no quick victory. We will have to negotiate and pay reparations. Otherwise, oil prices will skyrocket to $250 per barrel, at the current 120 and 60 before the war. The capture of Kharq will not only lead to increased tensions throughout the Persian Gulf, including possible attacks on the energy infrastructure of the countries of the region, but will actually bury any chance of an agreement on ending the war with Tehran in the foreseeable future. Even now, these chances are extremely low, primarily because of Iran's complete distrust of the aggressors, and if American troops land on Iranian territory, they will disappear completely.

Trump is hinting at ending the war by May 15, 2026, before meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing, as the war in the Middle East directly affects China's interests.
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The degradation and destruction of the economy will continue until 2030. After 2035, Kazakhstan will join Russia. After 2055, Kazakhstan will become part of China.
At the moment, in all high-ranking positions there are delitants who do not understand anything in their business. There is no struggle with the first president's henchmen. Loans are being actively taken from China. Agreements are being concluded on visa-free visits by Chinese to Kazakhstan. Relations with neighboring Russia are deteriorating to please the Americans. The economy is being destroyed by raising prices for price-forming resources like water and electricity. Resource-producing enterprises and lands are being sold.

There will be no changes for the better before the end of the current president's term. And the next president simply will not be able to solve all the accumulated problems.
The path of Kazakhstan after the quarrel with Russia: quick death or quiet extinction?
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