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Will the Ukraine-Russia summit help end the war?

Link Copy 2024-03-13 10:03:14

Prediction

The summit will not take place

Reason

Ukraine does not have the ability to stop military operations on its own. Negotiations with Russia are prohibited by law, the new president could lift this ban, but the elections have been postponed until the end of the war.

The summit will not take place

Russia hopes to end the hostilities with peaceful negotiations, it had the opportunity to kill Zelensky and capture Kiev. The issue will change after the change of the US president to Trump. If Biden stays, the EU will be forced to go to war with Russia.

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Will there be a war between the US and Iran?

Link Copy 2026-02-24 08:44:59

Prediction

It will not be a war, but a military conflict. In the 21st century, wars are almost never formally declared. It should start soon, by June 2026.

Reason

The United States will not just demonstrate military power for no reason, because it costs money. Putting two aircraft carriers on combat alert and bringing them to the borders of Iran costs enormous amounts, as does putting three nearby military bases on combat alert. Yes, Iran can block the Strait of Hormuz, but the U.S. is not very concerned because it has little impact on them. Currently, protests are happening in Iran, and the government is unstable. It's the perfect time to strike.

It will not be a war, but a military conflict. In the 21st century, wars are almost never formally declared. It should start soon, by June 2026.

The U.S. will have to struggle with Iran. Iran has a large territory and complex terrain, developed missile forces, a network of allied groups in the region, and the ability to exert pressure through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices will skyrocket, and shipping costs will increase.

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When will a strong earthquake happen in Kazakhstan?

Link Copy 2023-11-21 14:23:03

Prediction

In 2033 in the city of Almaty

Reason

The frequency of earthquakes in Almaty is 100-130 years. The last devastating earthquake was in 1911. There is a spontaneous development of the city with a formal check for earthquake resistance. The entire central part of Almaty is literally located on tectonic faults, some of which may be seismogenerating. Also, a metro is being built in the central part of Almaty, which actually blocks the course of underground water

In 2033 in the city of Almaty

In 2026, 45% of buildings will not be earthquake-resistant. The number of non-earthquake-resistant buildings will increase by 1.5% every 2 years

References
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What will happen if Ukraine wins the war?

Link Copy 2023-01-11 05:38:29

Prediction

Russia will have to pay hundreds of billions to compensate for the physical damage caused by the invasion. Military restrictions of the Russian Navy: no Russian Navy in the Black, Azov and Baltic Seas for 50 years. Military restrictions of the Russian army: from all its northern, western and southern borders, Russia must withdraw troops at least 100 km. War crimes: Russia must be punished for its wartime atrocities. Nuclear weapons: Under the new treaty with NATO, Russia must immediately agree to reduce its nuclear weapons to a quantity and quality no greater than that of the United States, and agree to inspections by NATO to ensure this compliance.

Reason

The scenario is plausible if Ukraine is supported long enough or fought on the side of Ukraine.

Russia will have to pay hundreds of billions to compensate for the physical damage caused by the invasion. Military restrictions of the Russian Navy: no Russian Navy in the Black, Azov and Baltic Seas for 50 years. Military restrictions of the Russian army: from all its northern, western and southern borders, Russia must withdraw troops at least 100 km. War crimes: Russia must be punished for its wartime atrocities. Nuclear weapons: Under the new treaty with NATO, Russia must immediately agree to reduce its nuclear weapons to a quantity and quality no greater than that of the United States, and agree to inspections by NATO to ensure this compliance.

All that stops the West from these scenarios is Russia's possession of nuclear weapons.

References

Accuracy 20

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