Is a nuclear escalation of the conflict and a third world war possible because of Russia and Ukraine in 2024-2025?

No

Tactical nuclear weapons are used in places where troops are concentrated. Russia can bomb Ukrainian troops and cities without nuclear weapons. If they are going to bomb Ukrainian cities with nuclear weapons, they take responsibility for the deaths of civilians and the consequences of the use of TNW. Therefore, nuclear weapons will be used as the last resort, in the event of a stalemate. But if Ukraine starts bombing Belarus, this will actually untie Russia's hands in the use of TNWs.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine declared war on each other. Shouts about the use of nuclear weapons are just political games, like shouts about the beginning of World War III. This is a reason to end the conflict and sit down at the negotiating table, if they continue to act in the same direction as now, the war could escalate into a confrontation with Europe with the use of TNWs.

What will be the consequences of the war?

Europe will be left without resources. The collapse of the EU. The loss of U.S. influence. The Beginning of China's Growth

After the collapse of the USSR, Europe gained access to Russian resources for a song, actually selling goods made from Russian resources to Russia. Now, if Russia wins, relations with Europe will deteriorate, it will not receive resources, and China has already received the Russian market at no cost, European companies themselves left it without a fight. In addition, Europe will have to rebuild Ukraine, because it was Europe and the United States that pushed it to war. Many people in the EU will not like it, and they will start leaving the European Union. Becoming poorer, Europe will buy fewer goods, including American ones. Russia will begin to recover at the expense of the former Soviet republics. China will grow.

If Russia loses, it will be plundered.

Will Palestine be created?

No, Israel will launch a ground operation in Rafah, the last city in southern Gaza not occupied by Israeli troops, and close the issue of the creation of Palestine

The Israeli leadership has been and remains categorically opposed to the creation of Palestine.

Palestinians from Gaza will be forced to flee to Egypt under the onslaught of Israeli troops, since Rafah is directly adjacent to the Egyptian border. The postponement and negotiations are due only to the fact that the international community is exerting strong pressure on Israel and the United States. The timing of the start of the ground operation is influenced by the protests in the United States, the ICC decision and the outcome of the negotiations

What is Russia's path?

First it will restore the USSR, then it will start a war with China.

After the coup in Ukraine in 2014 and the failed coup in Belarus in 2020, Russia realized that if nothing was done, the country would face war. Therefore, an association of countries like the European Union will be created. Belarus will be the first to enter it. Due to the sanctions in the country, almost the entire high-tech sector depends on supplies from China. With sanctions, high levels of corruption, high taxes and the elites' disinterest in change, Russia will not be able to resist the Chinese economy. Eventually, China will displace all competitors, including domestic companies, and will dominate the country. There is no progress in creating a competitive economy. Chinese specialists will move to the country en masse, displacing Russian specialists. When Russia tries to restrict China, China will act militarily.

Moscow takes all taxes for itself, and then distributes them by region. The regional elite is not at all interested in the growth of business in the regions, since its well-being depends on the ability to ask Moscow, and not on the growth of the number of enterprises. It is impossible to conduct business legally in the regions without paying bribes and fines. The legislation allows businesses to be blocked for 30 days in case of violations, so businesses pay bribes to avoid being blocked. A 47% tax and a 13% credit rate also do not contribute to business growth. Compared to the Chinese tax of 12% and the credit rate of 0.02%. Despite the fact that China spends money on cargo transportation, it is more profitable to produce and buy in China than in Russia.

The East is a delicate matter. The war has increased Russia's economic dependence on China

What does China mean for the Russian economy