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Why are so many wars happening right now?

Link Copy 2026-03-14 15:04:30

Prediction

Because of the recession, because of the expectation of quick victories, because of ambitions

Reason

Sometimes war is used to distract from internal problems. The struggle for resources (oil, gas, water, rare metals) intensifies. This is especially noticeable in regions with unstable politics. Very often wars begin when a country's leadership believes that victory will be quick and cheap. For example, Russia-Ukraine. Sometimes countries start a war when they believe the international situation is favorable to them. Like the USA-Iran or USA-Venezuela. Regional conflicts and escalation. Like India-Pakistan, Israel-Gaza Strip, Cambodian-Thai conflict, Afghan-Pakistani war.

Because of the recession, because of the expectation of quick victories, because of ambitions

After the end of the Cold War in 1991, the world became less predictable. Previously, two superpowers — the United States of America and the Soviet Union — restrained each other. Now several centers of power are emerging: China, Russia, the USA, regional powers like Iran and Turkey. When forces are distributed among many players, there are usually more conflicts.

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Is democracy the power of the majority?

Link Copy 2023-10-05 08:29:15

Prediction

No, 51% is more than half, but it's not an absolute 3/4 majority.

Reason

Democracy is essentially an oligarchy (aristocracy). If earlier the aristocracy around the world made decisions without the participation of the masses (until the beginning of the twentieth century - if citizens had the right to vote, it was only on property, race and other parameters), now, thanks to political technologies, the same thing is happening, only on the basis of manipulation of the capital of the masses. In addition, no one teaches political literacy, and therefore the politically illiterate population chooses someone from the appointees of the elite by unfair voting.

No, 51% is more than half, but it's not an absolute 3/4 majority.

Only elites participate in the parliamentary process. Citizens of the state are allowed to vote for their chosen candidate, but ordinary people cannot participate in elections. In the end, only the ruling elite decides the various interests of the population of the state.

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When will the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine take place and why is Ukraine asking for a 30-day ceasefire?

Link Copy 2025-05-11 16:38:54

Prediction

Negotiations will begin in the spring of 2026, as the US has once again allocated money to Ukraine for military actions.

Reason

Ukraine signed an agreement with the USA on rare earth metals, and the USA allocated funds for military actions. Russia declared a three-day ceasefire in honor of Victory Day. Zelensky proposed extending the ceasefire for 30 days. A 30-day ceasefire could be used as a cover for rearmament.

Negotiations will begin in the spring of 2026, as the US has once again allocated money to Ukraine for military actions.

Summer negotiations between the US, Ukraine, and Russia will lead to nothing. Ukraine has the money to continue the war. Russia has also changed the goals of its special military operation, expanding its territorial claims. Achieving these goals will require an increase in the size of the armed forces. A military draft is expected in Russia in the fall, and fierce fighting is anticipated in the winter, with the possibility of sitting at the negotiating table in the spring of 2026, depending on the outcome of the military actions.

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Why is Biden withdrawing his candidacy for president?

Link Copy 2024-07-20 12:56:35

Prediction

Because he can't win

Reason

Biden is under serious pressure within his party. The American president is being forced to drop out of the election race as soon as this coming weekend. The White House claims that Biden is capable of serving a second term as president, provided he is elected, but he has little chance of defeating Trump.

Because he can't win

The Democratic Party's presidential candidate will be chosen at the party's national convention, which will be held from August 19-22 in Chicago. And it will not be Vice President Kamala Harris. Biden is one of Ukraine's main sponsors. President Zelensky has already stated that by the end of the year the war will end its active phase, which means they are preparing for a change in the US leadership.

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