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When will the war between the United States and Israel with Iran end?

Link Copy 2026-03-29 12:54:08

Prediction

The end of May, if there is no ground operation

Reason

The United States is forced to reach an agreement with Iran. Because oil prices are going up. No one wanted to fight Iran instead of the United States, including NATO allies. Trump was absolutely certain of a blitzkrieg with Iran, but it quickly became clear that the war had not gone according to plan. There was no quick victory. We will have to negotiate and pay reparations. Otherwise, oil prices will skyrocket to $250 per barrel, at the current 120 and 60 before the war. The capture of Kharq will not only lead to increased tensions throughout the Persian Gulf, including possible attacks on the energy infrastructure of the countries of the region, but will actually bury any chance of an agreement on ending the war with Tehran in the foreseeable future. Even now, these chances are extremely low, primarily because of Iran's complete distrust of the aggressors, and if American troops land on Iranian territory, they will disappear completely.

The end of May, if there is no ground operation

Trump is hinting at ending the war by May 15, 2026, before meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing, as the war in the Middle East directly affects China's interests.

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When will the campaign against AI start and how will it end?

Link Copy 2024-05-16 14:02:43

Prediction

In 2033 and will end with the victory of AI

Reason

People will start consuming AI-generated content, and this will create problems for companies that sell regular content. There will be courts, but there will be no evidence that the content created violates anyone's rights.

In 2033 and will end with the victory of AI

Anti-AI campaigns already exist

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Why is Putin running for president for 3 consecutive terms, despite the constitutional ban for 2 consecutive terms?

Link Copy 2023-12-11 00:37:24

Prediction

After the amendments to the Constitution of Russia, the number of terms was reset. President Vladimir Putin has ensured that he can remain in power until 2036.

Reason

President Putin signed a law allowing him to run for two more presidential terms and rule Russia until 2036. The document was published on April 5, 2021 on the official portal of legal information and entered into force from the date of publication. Putin explained the changes in the constitution by the requirements of the time. In particular, the new basic law opened up the possibility of amending paragraph 5.1 of the law on presidential elections. Thus, the counter of Putin's presidential terms is canceled, and the main goal of the amendments is considered achieved.

After the amendments to the Constitution of Russia, the number of terms was reset. President Vladimir Putin has ensured that he can remain in power until 2036.

Putin will win the election with 74.9% of the vote.

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Is democracy the power of the majority?

Link Copy 2023-10-05 08:29:15

Prediction

No, 51% is more than half, but it's not an absolute 3/4 majority.

Reason

Democracy is essentially an oligarchy (aristocracy). If earlier the aristocracy around the world made decisions without the participation of the masses (until the beginning of the twentieth century - if citizens had the right to vote, it was only on property, race and other parameters), now, thanks to political technologies, the same thing is happening, only on the basis of manipulation of the capital of the masses. In addition, no one teaches political literacy, and therefore the politically illiterate population chooses someone from the appointees of the elite by unfair voting.

No, 51% is more than half, but it's not an absolute 3/4 majority.

Only elites participate in the parliamentary process. Citizens of the state are allowed to vote for their chosen candidate, but ordinary people cannot participate in elections. In the end, only the ruling elite decides the various interests of the population of the state.

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