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Will there be a war between the US and Iran?

Link Copy 2026-02-24 08:44:59

Prediction

It will not be a war, but a military conflict. In the 21st century, wars are almost never formally declared. It should start soon, by June 2026.

Reason

The United States will not just demonstrate military power for no reason, because it costs money. Putting two aircraft carriers on combat alert and bringing them to the borders of Iran costs enormous amounts, as does putting three nearby military bases on combat alert. Yes, Iran can block the Strait of Hormuz, but the U.S. is not very concerned because it has little impact on them. Currently, protests are happening in Iran, and the government is unstable. It's the perfect time to strike.

It will not be a war, but a military conflict. In the 21st century, wars are almost never formally declared. It should start soon, by June 2026.

The U.S. will have to struggle with Iran. Iran has a large territory and complex terrain, developed missile forces, a network of allied groups in the region, and the ability to exert pressure through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices will skyrocket, and shipping costs will increase.

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When will power change in Belarus?

Link Copy 2023-05-29 12:51:22

Prediction

In 2025

Reason

Under the new government specially change the constitution.

In 2025

Lukashenka believes that a “normal, pragmatic” candidate will win the elections, while the opposition has no prospects. In other words, Lukashenka himself will choose a successor.

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Why does the United States need a deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia?

Link Copy 2025-08-21 17:20:51

Prediction

The result should be a transit corridor through the territory of 2 countries.

Reason

Following the talks, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to create a major transit corridor. Azerbaijan is currently modernizing the railway in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic at its own expense, and it is planned to build a railway in Armenia. The United States is not investing in this project. The expansion of US influence in this region could lead to the expansion of NATO's influence throughout the South Caucasus, which could become a wedge between Iran and Russia.

The result should be a transit corridor through the territory of 2 countries.

Armenia sells Russian gas as its own, bypassing sanctions. If the war ends and sanctions are lifted, this route will cease to be economically important, since Russia will be able to sell gas via other routes, but if we are talking about NATO expansion, then this is a completely different matter.

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What will happen after a global Microsoft outage?

Link Copy 2024-07-19 14:01:11

Prediction

Microsoft shares will drop in price. It is likely that Microsoft will face lawsuits for damages. Some companies will switch to competitors' cloud services.

Reason

There are SLAs: a document that specifies the technical performance guarantees provided by the cloud service provider, the procedure for identifying and resolving disputes, as well as remedies for failures. In this case, these guarantees were violated.

Microsoft shares will drop in price. It is likely that Microsoft will face lawsuits for damages. Some companies will switch to competitors' cloud services.

Competitors will take advantage of this opportunity to lure affected companies to their cloud services. In addition, for some time, this will serve as negative publicity for Microsoft.

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