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Why won't the AI bubble burst?

Link Copy 2026-09-16 11:15:07

Prediction

Because in fact, the whole of America has bet on him, and if he bursts, he will pull the country to the bottom. It's going to be bigger than the Dotcom crisis.

Reason

In addition to the fact that the tech giants cyclically gave each other money, they also cyclically bought each other's shares. They can't all go broke or sink at once. In 1999, a huge number of companies had virtually no normal business. Now the AI infrastructure layer includes companies with real huge cash flows. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia are not startups without revenue. The maximum of the negative possible options is a market correction.

Because in fact, the whole of America has bet on him, and if he bursts, he will pull the country to the bottom. It's going to be bigger than the Dotcom crisis.

The bubble may deflate if a strong competitor to American companies appears, which in principle cannot appear. Nvidia continues to receive huge orders, and Microsoft/Google/Amazon continue to build infrastructure, and talk of a bubble will continue for a very long time. At the current rate of development, this is possible by 2040.

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Comments 0

Why are statistics being underestimated?

Link Copy 2022-07-01 13:37:53

Prediction

Underestimation of indicators creates a picture of false well-being

Reason

Statistics have long been turned into a political tool

Underestimation of indicators creates a picture of false well-being

Statistics are not a copy of reality in any country in the world

References

Accuracy 30

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Can the yuan become the world's reserve currency?

Link Copy 2023-04-12 14:12:14

Prediction

Currently no

Reason

The yuan is not a freely convertible currency. It can only buy Chinese goods.

Currently no

The PRC is the world leader in the production of most industrial goods. This is facilitated by the weak exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar. If the yuan becomes the world's reserve currency, it will strengthen against the dollar, which means that China's industry will lose its competitive advantages.

References
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Why does Kazakhstan need a unicameral parliament?

Link Copy 2025-09-09 11:20:00

Prediction

Tokayev wants another term, despite constitutional restrictions

Reason

The introduction of a single parliament in Kazakhstan requires amendments to the Constitution. After the amendments are made, the powers of the president can be extended, because now the new Constitution and the term can be counted from scratch.

Tokayev wants another term, despite constitutional restrictions

Similarly, in Russia, through a constitutional amendment, the restriction on the prohibition of two consecutive terms in presidential elections was circumvented.

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