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Is the estimate of browser market share realistic?

Link Copy 2024-02-25 23:19:47

Prediction

Numbers are probabilities

Reason

It is not possible to view the actual data to verify the calculations. There is a cheating of the results. Only popular counter sites are taken into account, and sites without counters are not taken into account.

Numbers are probabilities

For example, Chrome folds Chome Mobile, Chrome, Web View and gets 56%

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Will there be new protests in Kazakhstan in January?

Link Copy 2022-12-26 06:42:51

Prediction

No

Reason

There are no events that can cause the beginning of mass riots. There is no one to organize riots, because before the holding of out-of-ceremonial elections in November 2022, the Ministry of Internal Affairs detained persons involved in planning the organization of mass riots. Also, January 2023 will be much colder than January 2022 and there will be no large masses of walkers on the streets.

No

It is impossible to rule out the possibility of new protests, including large actions, but a repeat of the January events with the same degree of radicalism is unlikely in the near future.

References

Accuracy 30

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When will the war between the United States and Israel with Iran end?

Link Copy 2026-03-29 12:54:08

Prediction

The end of May, if there is no ground operation

Reason

The United States is forced to reach an agreement with Iran. Because oil prices are going up. No one wanted to fight Iran instead of the United States, including NATO allies. Trump was absolutely certain of a blitzkrieg with Iran, but it quickly became clear that the war had not gone according to plan. There was no quick victory. We will have to negotiate and pay reparations. Otherwise, oil prices will skyrocket to $250 per barrel, at the current 120 and 60 before the war. The capture of Kharq will not only lead to increased tensions throughout the Persian Gulf, including possible attacks on the energy infrastructure of the countries of the region, but will actually bury any chance of an agreement on ending the war with Tehran in the foreseeable future. Even now, these chances are extremely low, primarily because of Iran's complete distrust of the aggressors, and if American troops land on Iranian territory, they will disappear completely.

The end of May, if there is no ground operation

Trump is hinting at ending the war by May 15, 2026, before meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing, as the war in the Middle East directly affects China's interests.

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What will happen if Ukraine wins the war?

Link Copy 2023-01-11 05:38:29

Prediction

Russia will have to pay hundreds of billions to compensate for the physical damage caused by the invasion. Military restrictions of the Russian Navy: no Russian Navy in the Black, Azov and Baltic Seas for 50 years. Military restrictions of the Russian army: from all its northern, western and southern borders, Russia must withdraw troops at least 100 km. War crimes: Russia must be punished for its wartime atrocities. Nuclear weapons: Under the new treaty with NATO, Russia must immediately agree to reduce its nuclear weapons to a quantity and quality no greater than that of the United States, and agree to inspections by NATO to ensure this compliance.

Reason

The scenario is plausible if Ukraine is supported long enough or fought on the side of Ukraine.

Russia will have to pay hundreds of billions to compensate for the physical damage caused by the invasion. Military restrictions of the Russian Navy: no Russian Navy in the Black, Azov and Baltic Seas for 50 years. Military restrictions of the Russian army: from all its northern, western and southern borders, Russia must withdraw troops at least 100 km. War crimes: Russia must be punished for its wartime atrocities. Nuclear weapons: Under the new treaty with NATO, Russia must immediately agree to reduce its nuclear weapons to a quantity and quality no greater than that of the United States, and agree to inspections by NATO to ensure this compliance.

All that stops the West from these scenarios is Russia's possession of nuclear weapons.

References

Accuracy 20

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