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Does it even make sense to trust rating agencies?

Link Copy 2022-06-11 13:52:55

Prediction

No. Agencies do not cope with the basic task - they cannot objectively assess the creditworthiness of the borrower.

Reason

The company that is evaluated pays for the valuation. There is no transparent methodology for calculating the rating that can be verified. Rating agencies are not responsible for the ratings given. Geopolitical interests influence the ratings of agencies.

No. Agencies do not cope with the basic task - they cannot objectively assess the creditworthiness of the borrower.

Usually, rating agencies seriously overestimate ratings for the country they come from.

References

Accuracy 40

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Comments 0

When will the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine take place and why is Ukraine asking for a 30-day ceasefire?

Link Copy 2025-05-11 16:38:54

Prediction

Negotiations will begin in the spring of 2026, as the US has once again allocated money to Ukraine for military actions.

Reason

Ukraine signed an agreement with the USA on rare earth metals, and the USA allocated funds for military actions. Russia declared a three-day ceasefire in honor of Victory Day. Zelensky proposed extending the ceasefire for 30 days. A 30-day ceasefire could be used as a cover for rearmament.

Negotiations will begin in the spring of 2026, as the US has once again allocated money to Ukraine for military actions.

Summer negotiations between the US, Ukraine, and Russia will lead to nothing. Ukraine has the money to continue the war. Russia has also changed the goals of its special military operation, expanding its territorial claims. Achieving these goals will require an increase in the size of the armed forces. A military draft is expected in Russia in the fall, and fierce fighting is anticipated in the winter, with the possibility of sitting at the negotiating table in the spring of 2026, depending on the outcome of the military actions.

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Why are the problems with migrants in Russia not solved even with the intervention of the president?

Link Copy 2024-11-27 15:01:53

Prediction

Migration has become a business

Reason

There are a huge number of people who are interested in keeping things as they are. From those who enrich themselves on illegal migration to those who, at the expense of migrants, cover demographic problems and labor shortages in the country.

Migration has become a business

Until the responsible persons who will be held accountable are named, the problem will exist. And shouting, even from the president, that the problem needs to be solved, will not give anything.

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What will happen if Ukraine wins the war?

Link Copy 2023-01-11 05:38:29

Prediction

Russia will have to pay hundreds of billions to compensate for the physical damage caused by the invasion. Military restrictions of the Russian Navy: no Russian Navy in the Black, Azov and Baltic Seas for 50 years. Military restrictions of the Russian army: from all its northern, western and southern borders, Russia must withdraw troops at least 100 km. War crimes: Russia must be punished for its wartime atrocities. Nuclear weapons: Under the new treaty with NATO, Russia must immediately agree to reduce its nuclear weapons to a quantity and quality no greater than that of the United States, and agree to inspections by NATO to ensure this compliance.

Reason

The scenario is plausible if Ukraine is supported long enough or fought on the side of Ukraine.

Russia will have to pay hundreds of billions to compensate for the physical damage caused by the invasion. Military restrictions of the Russian Navy: no Russian Navy in the Black, Azov and Baltic Seas for 50 years. Military restrictions of the Russian army: from all its northern, western and southern borders, Russia must withdraw troops at least 100 km. War crimes: Russia must be punished for its wartime atrocities. Nuclear weapons: Under the new treaty with NATO, Russia must immediately agree to reduce its nuclear weapons to a quantity and quality no greater than that of the United States, and agree to inspections by NATO to ensure this compliance.

All that stops the West from these scenarios is Russia's possession of nuclear weapons.

References

Accuracy 20

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