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What is the goal of the war with Iran?

Link Copy 2025-06-25 11:04:26

Prediction

They want Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz.

Reason

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the planet's key transport arteries, through which millions of barrels of oil and millions of tons of liquefied natural gas pass daily. Closing the strait, even for a short period, can lead to a surge in oil prices, fluctuations in global markets, and serious supply disruptions. If the strait is closed, Europe will be forced to buy gas from the U.S. as Russian gas is cut off for them. Pressure on Iran will increase Europe's dependence on the U.S. And in the U.S. itself, any laws can be passed in sync with Iran's attacks, as the media daily bombards the population with news about the war with Iran. At the same time, arms can be sold to Israel.

They want Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz.

No one has imposed sanctions against the USA and Israel yet.

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What will happen after a global Microsoft outage?

Link Copy 2024-07-19 14:01:11

Prediction

Microsoft shares will drop in price. It is likely that Microsoft will face lawsuits for damages. Some companies will switch to competitors' cloud services.

Reason

There are SLAs: a document that specifies the technical performance guarantees provided by the cloud service provider, the procedure for identifying and resolving disputes, as well as remedies for failures. In this case, these guarantees were violated.

Microsoft shares will drop in price. It is likely that Microsoft will face lawsuits for damages. Some companies will switch to competitors' cloud services.

Competitors will take advantage of this opportunity to lure affected companies to their cloud services. In addition, for some time, this will serve as negative publicity for Microsoft.

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Why does Kazakhstan need a unicameral parliament?

Link Copy 2025-09-09 11:20:00

Prediction

Tokayev wants another term, despite constitutional restrictions

Reason

The introduction of a single parliament in Kazakhstan requires amendments to the Constitution. After the amendments are made, the powers of the president can be extended, because now the new Constitution and the term can be counted from scratch.

Tokayev wants another term, despite constitutional restrictions

Similarly, in Russia, through a constitutional amendment, the restriction on the prohibition of two consecutive terms in presidential elections was circumvented.

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Will there be a US technical default in 2023?

Link Copy 2023-05-17 20:18:24

Prediction

No, raise the debt ceiling

Reason

Both Republicans and Democrats are in favor of raising the national debt ceiling, but Republicans demand to cut spending

No, raise the debt ceiling

In 2011, it was possible to agree on raising the amount of debt only three days before the “deadline”. The compromise was eventually reached after President Barack Obama's administration agreed to cut defense and other spending.

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