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Whose Crimea is it?

Link Copy 2023-01-09 05:14:14

Prediction

The winner of the war will put an end to this issue

Reason

If the issue of Crimea's ownership had been resolved, there would have been no war.

The winner of the war will put an end to this issue

The issue has not been resolved yet

References

Accuracy 10

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Will Russia be able to carry out import substitution of electronics by 2030?

Link Copy 2022-12-12 08:25:20

Prediction

If we are talking about the purchase of obsolete equipment, then yes. If we are talking about the production of semiconductors with 0, then no.

Reason

Lack of specialists. There is a critical dependence of the design and production processes on foreign technologies, including software, and materials (in particular, high-purity chemistry and silicon). Low investment attractiveness of the industry. Lack of production capacity.

If we are talking about the purchase of obsolete equipment, then yes. If we are talking about the production of semiconductors with 0, then no.

3.19 trillion rubles will be enough only to buy obsolete equipment. ASML spent $6 billion a year to become an industry leader. But she had specialists, there were no sanctions and there was no urgent need. In the current situation, the amount needs to be tripled.

References

Accuracy 30

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Will the U.S. Be Able to Isolate China?

Link Copy 2025-04-17 10:39:30

Prediction

The United States has already missed China's development, and now no protective duties will help

Reason

The United States is trying to create an anti-Chinese coalition. The implementation of the American plan will fail due to the scale of the Chinese economy and the unwillingness of countries to act at the behest of the Americans. China opposes the escalation of the trade war and responds to the imposition of duties on its goods in the United States. China has also raised tariffs on U.S. products and imposed restrictions on mineral exports to the United States.

The United States has already missed China's development, and now no protective duties will help

The White House is seeking to force dozens of countries to abandon trade with China. The Americans are offering to strike a deal with Washington in exchange for lower import duties, but other countries are already benefiting more from trade with China than from U.S. trade

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What will capitalism lead to?

Link Copy 2024-11-16 07:52:06

Prediction

To the war

Reason

Capitalism tends to monopolize, and monopoly ultimately leads to war. The logic of free competition inevitably leads the market to a state where only the last two competitors remain in it, practically deciding among themselves which of them should solely own the entire market.

To the war

Currently, trade wars for market ownership are already underway, for example, between the United States and China.

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