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Can the yuan become the world's reserve currency?

Link Copy 2023-04-12 14:12:14

Prediction

Currently no

Reason

The yuan is not a freely convertible currency. It can only buy Chinese goods.

Currently no

The PRC is the world leader in the production of most industrial goods. This is facilitated by the weak exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar. If the yuan becomes the world's reserve currency, it will strengthen against the dollar, which means that China's industry will lose its competitive advantages.

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When will the war between the United States and Israel with Iran end?

Link Copy 2026-03-29 12:54:08

Prediction

There will be no ground operation, but there will be no serious negotiations, at least not until the end of the summer.

Reason

The United States is forced to reach an agreement with Iran. Because oil prices are going up. No one wanted to fight Iran instead of the United States, including NATO allies. Trump was absolutely certain of a blitzkrieg with Iran, but it quickly became clear that the war had not gone according to plan. There was no quick victory. We will have to negotiate and pay reparations. Otherwise, oil prices will skyrocket to $250 per barrel, at the current 120 and 60 before the war. The capture of Kharq will not only lead to increased tensions throughout the Persian Gulf, including possible attacks on the energy infrastructure of the countries of the region, but will actually bury any chance of an agreement on ending the war with Tehran in the foreseeable future. Even now, these chances are extremely low, primarily because of Iran's complete distrust of the aggressors, and if American troops land on Iranian territory, they will disappear completely.

There will be no ground operation, but there will be no serious negotiations, at least not until the end of the summer.

Trump will negotiate oil purchases from the United States at a meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 15, and there will be no talk of ending the war. Most likely, China will think and then refuse, citing the country's interests in the region, and Europe will also put pressure on Trump inside the country, so we will have to negotiate.

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Why can a war start in Kazakhstan as in Ukraine?

Link Copy 2023-06-12 02:08:31

Prediction

If Kazakhstan prohibits, seizes Chinese or Russian private property or prohibits companies with owners from Russia or China

Reason

The war in Ukraine began, among other things, because Ukraine began to prohibit companies with owners from Russia from working, and Russian business was forced to sell its assets in Ukraine for nothing

If Kazakhstan prohibits, seizes Chinese or Russian private property or prohibits companies with owners from Russia or China

Astana's pro-Western course will lead to the collapse of Kazakhstan's statehood

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How will the attempt on Trump's life affect the presidential race?

Link Copy 2024-07-14 05:35:56

Prediction

An assassination attempt on Donald Trump will greatly enhance his chances of winning

Reason

Before the assassination attempt, Trump's supporters considered him a hero who had to face constant attacks from his enemies - now this image will become even stronger. The attack will consolidate the image of a martyr for the Republican, and a photo with a raised fist will become a symbol of the elections.

An assassination attempt on Donald Trump will greatly enhance his chances of winning

The assassination attempt was preceded by a series of political victories by Trump. On June 27, he won the debate with Joe Biden.

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