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When will coronavirus pandemic stop?

Link Copy 2023-03-21 03:04:13

Prediction

Life could return to normal for developed countries by the end of 2021, and for the rest of the world by the end of 2022, pondemic status will be removed in mid-2023

Reason

The number of deaths decreased

Life could return to normal for developed countries by the end of 2021, and for the rest of the world by the end of 2022, pondemic status will be removed in mid-2023

WHO does not yet say the exact date

References

Accuracy 30

2021-11-02
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How does the United States benefit from the war?

Link Copy 2026-01-03 09:46:51

Prediction

The weakening of Russia as a geopolitical rival, the severing of Europe's energy and political ties with Russia, the increasing dependence of Europe on the United States in the field of security and resources, the growth of exports of American weapons and energy resources, the strengthening of US leadership in NATO and the demonstration of global influence without direct participation in hostilities.

Reason

US benefits from the end of the war: consolidating achieved results (a weakened Russia, Europe tied to the US, Ukraine in the Western sphere), reducing financial and political costs, lowering the risk of direct escalation, stabilizing the global economy, and the opportunity to focus on a more priority rival—China, while retaining the role of key global arbiter.

The weakening of Russia as a geopolitical rival, the severing of Europe's energy and political ties with Russia, the increasing dependence of Europe on the United States in the field of security and resources, the growth of exports of American weapons and energy resources, the strengthening of US leadership in NATO and the demonstration of global influence without direct participation in hostilities.

Other countries also benefit from conflict, but the difference is that the United States has more resources, more influence, and more severe consequences from any crisis.

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What is the forecast for SpaceX?

Link Copy 2026-06-21 10:45:15

Prediction

There will be growth in year 6, but by 2027 it will disappoint investors.

Reason

At the peak of IPOs and the euphoria of artificial intelligence, the market often ignores the bad news. Investors are buying stories about the future: robotaxi, AGI, Mars, revolution in transportation. Revenues and margins fade into the background. In 2027, everything will change. The company simply has nowhere to make a profit. This is not a Tesla that could share technology for money and achieve payback thanks to the introduced zero-emission laws. Nobody needs space. Starlink will not be able to cover the losses. Grok is lagging behind in the development of artificial intelligence and will not catch up with competitors in the near future. In 2025, Tesla's global shipments decreased by about 9% year-on-year, and the company lost leadership in electric vehicle sales to China's BYD, and according to Tesla reports, it continued to gradually lose market share in Q1 2026 as the overall electric vehicle market grows faster and competitors become more aggressive. Tesla's autopilot is inferior to Waymo in terms of real driverless autonomy. The Optimus robot still does not know how to work stably in the “real world without control.”

There will be growth in year 6, but by 2027 it will disappoint investors.

For a SpaceX shareholder, the question is as follows: Will Grok be better than ChatGPT and Claude? This may turn out to be almost as important as the question Will Starship be able to fly to Mars?. And 2027 will be the year of verification: is Grok making money? Is Starlink growing as fast as promised? Does Starship have any commercial success? Is the estimate of trillions of dollars justified?

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Why is not hydrogen used instead of gasoline?

Link Copy 2023-01-31 03:42:40

Prediction

The main reason is the high cost of production

Reason

No catalyst to produce hydrogen from coal or water

The main reason is the high cost of production

Hydrogen would be a good substitute for gasoline

References

Accuracy 20

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