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What will Kazakhstan's current policy towards Russia lead to?

Link Copy 2023-07-13 15:46:58

Prediction

Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have agreed to launch a new multimodal Southern Transport Corridor, which will bypass the territory of Kazakhstan. The new route solves two tasks: to avoid obstacles arising on the Kazakh border for goods going to the markets of the Russian Federation, and to transfer part of the cargo flow to the port of Astrakhan. This will deal a blow to Astana's plans to make Kazakhstan a full-fledged transport hub in Central Asia and the Caspian region. The route from China through Kyrgyzstan will become a very serious competitor to the route on Kazakhstan railways.

Reason

Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have agreed to launch a new multimodal Southern Transport Corridor, which will bypass the territory of Kazakhstan. The new route solves two tasks: to avoid obstacles arising on the Kazakh border for goods going to the markets of the Russian Federation, and to transfer part of the cargo flow to the port of Astrakhan. This will deal a blow to Astana's plans to make Kazakhstan a full-fledged transport hub in Central Asia and the Caspian region. The route from China through Kyrgyzstan will become a very serious competitor to the route on Kazakhstan railways.

Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have agreed to launch a new multimodal Southern Transport Corridor, which will bypass the territory of Kazakhstan. The new route solves two tasks: to avoid obstacles arising on the Kazakh border for goods going to the markets of the Russian Federation, and to transfer part of the cargo flow to the port of Astrakhan. This will deal a blow to Astana's plans to make Kazakhstan a full-fledged transport hub in Central Asia and the Caspian region. The route from China through Kyrgyzstan will become a very serious competitor to the route on Kazakhstan railways.

Moreover, this blow to the plans of the President of Kazakhstan is inflicted from the Kazakh side, and not from Russia or Kyrgyzstan. If the transit of goods went without delays, then no one would be against using the territory of Kazakhstan as a hub. Astana's decision not to violate Western sanctions imposed against Russia was only a catalyst for the initiative to create an alternative transport corridor bypassing Kazakhstan

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When will peace talks between Ukraine and Russia take place?

Link Copy 2023-06-02 01:27:36

Prediction

In the fall of 2023. They will end in nothing.

Reason

In the summer of 2023 there will be fierce battles in Ukraine and terrorist attacks on the territory of Russia. Türkiye is already trying to arrange negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. But now these negotiations are not beneficial for Russia, because in fact it is a loss in the war. In 2024, elections in Ukraine, Russia and the United States. Before the elections, it is necessary to end the war, because if there is a war, Zelensky has little chance of winning the elections. Biden will also have few trump cards before the electorate in the elections.

In the fall of 2023. They will end in nothing.

The United States is trying with all its might to freeze the conflict for 10 years. In 2024, the election campaign will begin in America and no one will be engaged in Ukraine. 2023 is the last year when Ukraine will receive military assistance from the United States. Without military assistance, the war will not end, but hostilities will weaken. The current presidents of Russia and Ukraine will not sit down at the same negotiating table. In order for the signing of a peace treaty to happen, at least one president must be replaced.

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Will rallies be repeated in Kazakhstan?

Link Copy 2023-06-08 08:35:38

Prediction

Yes, in 2025

Reason

The leaders of the EAEU countries reached an agreement in principle and approved the concept of a common hydrocarbon market from 2025. And this means that the price of hydrocarbons should be equal, and electronic trading will also have to be introduced. For Kazakhstan, this means an increase in the retail price of energy resources, because at the moment it has the lowest energy prices in comparison with its neighbors. Rising prices for everything will immediately cause a repeat of the riots, as was the case in 2022.

Yes, in 2025

The riots in 2022 began due to the fact that electronic trading was introduced and someone bought up all the gas and the retail gas price doubled.

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What are Russia's goals?

Link Copy 2023-05-09 14:02:11

Prediction

Putin wants to recreate the USSR in a new form, similar to the European Union.

Reason

Although after the collapse of the USSR, Russia recognized the new geopolitical realities and strengthened cooperation with all states in the post-Soviet space, the conditions are such that some allied territories cannot remain without Russian military assistance or without the Russian market.

Putin wants to recreate the USSR in a new form, similar to the European Union.

Russia has many territories, but few sales markets

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