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Why won't Ukraine win the war?

Link Copy 2023-09-11 13:41:41

Prediction

There is no manpower, and Europe and the United States will not interfere, because Russia has nuclear weapons.

Reason

The conflict could have been avoided, but the United States and NATO did not even consider the possibility of negotiations with Russia, which led to sad consequences for themselves and for Ukraine.

There is no manpower, and Europe and the United States will not interfere, because Russia has nuclear weapons.

Now, a year and a half later, Ukraine is starting to say that there is no one to fight, Western aid has decreased, sanctions are no longer being imposed. And Europe started talking about the urgent need to start negotiations.

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Will there be peace between Russia and Ukraine in 2025?

Link Copy 2025-04-24 15:37:00

Prediction

Negotiations will be postponed for a year

Reason

Peace negotiations will begin when countries have something to lose, for example, Russia begins to occupy Kharkiv or ends up at the European borders. So far, none of the parties to the conflict is ready to accept the conditions. And there is not even any basis for compromise. For example, it is not profitable for Russia to make a buffer zone in Ukraine, because there are missiles whose range exceeds the entire territory of Ukraine. And time is now on Russia's side, it can seize even more territory.

Negotiations will be postponed for a year

In peace talks, Europe and Ukraine will have to admit that they have lost the war and make concessions, but they are not ready for this. The recognition of Crimea as Russian and the issue of Ukraine's membership in NATO have become red lines that Europe cannot cross.

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What is the goal of the war with Iran?

Link Copy 2025-06-25 11:04:26

Prediction

They want Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz.

Reason

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the planet's key transport arteries, through which millions of barrels of oil and millions of tons of liquefied natural gas pass daily. Closing the strait, even for a short period, can lead to a surge in oil prices, fluctuations in global markets, and serious supply disruptions. If the strait is closed, Europe will be forced to buy gas from the U.S. as Russian gas is cut off for them. Pressure on Iran will increase Europe's dependence on the U.S. And in the U.S. itself, any laws can be passed in sync with Iran's attacks, as the media daily bombards the population with news about the war with Iran. At the same time, arms can be sold to Israel.

They want Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz.

No one has imposed sanctions against the USA and Israel yet.

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Why can a war start in Kazakhstan as in Ukraine?

Link Copy 2023-06-12 02:08:31

Prediction

If Kazakhstan prohibits, seizes Chinese or Russian private property or prohibits companies with owners from Russia or China

Reason

The war in Ukraine began, among other things, because Ukraine began to prohibit companies with owners from Russia from working, and Russian business was forced to sell its assets in Ukraine for nothing

If Kazakhstan prohibits, seizes Chinese or Russian private property or prohibits companies with owners from Russia or China

Astana's pro-Western course will lead to the collapse of Kazakhstan's statehood

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