What is Russia's path?

2023-09-27 09:43:10

First it will restore the USSR, then it will start a war with China.

After the coup in Ukraine in 2014 and the failed coup in Belarus in 2020, Russia realized that if nothing was done, the country would face war. Therefore, an association of countries like the European Union will be created. Belarus will be the first to enter it. Due to the sanctions in the country, almost the entire high-tech sector depends on supplies from China. With sanctions, high levels of corruption, high taxes and the elites' disinterest in change, Russia will not be able to resist the Chinese economy. Eventually, China will displace all competitors, including domestic companies, and will dominate the country. There is no progress in creating a competitive economy. Chinese specialists will move to the country en masse, displacing Russian specialists. When Russia tries to restrict China, China will act militarily.

Moscow takes all taxes for itself, and then distributes them by region. The regional elite is not at all interested in the growth of business in the regions, since its well-being depends on the ability to ask Moscow, and not on the growth of the number of enterprises. It is impossible to conduct business legally in the regions without paying bribes and fines. The legislation allows businesses to be blocked for 30 days in case of violations, so businesses pay bribes to avoid being blocked. A 47% tax and a 13% credit rate also do not contribute to business growth. Compared to the Chinese tax of 12% and the credit rate of 0.02%. Despite the fact that China spends money on cargo transportation, it is more profitable to produce and buy in China than in Russia.

The East is a delicate matter. The war has increased Russia's economic dependence on China

What does China mean for the Russian economy

What will be the next president of Russia after Putin?

2023-09-28 09:49:18

Politically weak

All talk about a successor is stopped, no one wants to even think about it. Preparations for the succession are not underway, which means that the new president will be chosen spontaneously and will protect the personal interests of the ruling elite, and not the whole country. The president from alternative parties will not be allowed to win.

Nothing will change in the country with the change of the president. The country will continue to sell energy resources abroad. The new president will make decisions based on personal gain, hiding behind the interests of the country.

How did the war change Putin's regime? What price will Russia pay after the change of power? And is there any hope at all that Putin is not forever?

The reason why the two Koreas will unite?

2024-10-27 16:10:58

Kim Jong-un's daughter will not hold on to power

The unification of Korea is the political goal declared by the governments of the DPRK and the Republic of Korea. The unification will take place by military means. The war will begin soon after the DPRK's main allies - China and Russia - begin hostilities. The DPRK will have to choose. Now Russia, due to the mistakes of the leadership, is beginning to depend on China.

The main burden of unification will fall on South Korea. So far, this association is disadvantageous to the neighbors. Russia will not be happy about the emergence of a very unstable state with nuclear weapons next door. China is also in favor of maintaining the status quo and is willing to systematically invest serious sums of money in North Korea. China's main task is to prevent the unification of Korea, since this will create a number of difficulties and change the balance of power in the East.

When will the war between the United States and Israel with Iran end?

2026-03-29 12:54:08

The end of May, if there is no ground operation

The United States is forced to reach an agreement with Iran. Because oil prices are going up. No one wanted to fight Iran instead of the United States, including NATO allies. Trump was absolutely certain of a blitzkrieg with Iran, but it quickly became clear that the war had not gone according to plan. There was no quick victory. We will have to negotiate and pay reparations. Otherwise, oil prices will skyrocket to $250 per barrel, at the current 120 and 60 before the war. The capture of Kharq will not only lead to increased tensions throughout the Persian Gulf, including possible attacks on the energy infrastructure of the countries of the region, but will actually bury any chance of an agreement on ending the war with Tehran in the foreseeable future. Even now, these chances are extremely low, primarily because of Iran's complete distrust of the aggressors, and if American troops land on Iranian territory, they will disappear completely.

Trump is hinting at ending the war by May 15, 2026, before meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing, as the war in the Middle East directly affects China's interests.