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Will Ukraine attack Belarus?

Link Copy 2024-10-10 12:13:37

Prediction

Not in the near future

Reason

An information war is being waged against Russia, among other things. Proposals for a Ukrainian attack on Belarus are a test of the reaction of Russia and Belarus to such a step.

Not in the near future

If the war drags on, there is a prospect of an attack, as Belarus is one of the few countries that support Russia.

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What will be the consequences of the war?

Link Copy 2024-06-19 07:49:13

Prediction

Europe will be left without resources. The collapse of the EU. The loss of U.S. influence. The Beginning of China's Growth

Reason

After the collapse of the USSR, Europe gained access to Russian resources for a song, actually selling goods made from Russian resources to Russia. Now, if Russia wins, relations with Europe will deteriorate, it will not receive resources, and China has already received the Russian market at no cost, European companies themselves left it without a fight. In addition, Europe will have to rebuild Ukraine, because it was Europe and the United States that pushed it to war. Many people in the EU will not like it, and they will start leaving the European Union. Becoming poorer, Europe will buy fewer goods, including American ones. Russia will begin to recover at the expense of the former Soviet republics. China will grow.

Europe will be left without resources. The collapse of the EU. The loss of U.S. influence. The Beginning of China's Growth

If Russia loses, it will be plundered.

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Will there be a nuclear war?

Link Copy 2023-09-17 05:59:27

Prediction

No

Reason

In 1994, the United States, England, France, and Russia signed an agreement to stop the production of fissile materials for nuclear weapons. The PRC did not sign the treaty, but undertook to comply with it. Israel also did not sign the agreement, but stopped the production of nuclear weapons in 2004, reserving for itself the right to resume its production if necessary. India, Pakistan, and the DPRK, of course, did not sign the treaty. This contract is indefinite, its effect began in 1997.

No

Plutonium-based nuclear weapons have an expiration date of 18 years. 1997 18 years = 2015. Also, defeating military targets, and not hitting cities at all, is the priority of a nuclear attack.

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When will there be a change of the ruling elite in Russia?

Link Copy 2023-07-28 14:26:17

Prediction

In 2024, the transition period to this change will only come.

Reason

The sanctions did not discourage the elite's aspirations to the West, but they gave rise to a desire to somehow circumvent the sanctions and quickly cancel or at least weaken part of them. The path to the West for the Russian elite remains the main one, despite the statement of insurmountable differences with the elites of the West. There is simply no other option comparable in terms of profitability. The reduction of the resource base sowed confusion in the elites and required the arbitrator to remove certain players from the number of active clans by force.

In 2024, the transition period to this change will only come.

When will there be a change of the ruling elite in Russia?

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