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Will Ukraine attack Belarus?

Link Copy 2024-10-10 12:13:37

Prediction

Not in the near future

Reason

An information war is being waged against Russia, among other things. Proposals for a Ukrainian attack on Belarus are a test of the reaction of Russia and Belarus to such a step.

Not in the near future

If the war drags on, there is a prospect of an attack, as Belarus is one of the few countries that support Russia.

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Will the United States withdraw from NATO?

Link Copy 2025-12-14 09:21:56

Prediction

There is no document where the United States commits to withdraw from NATO by 2027. There are strategies and projects where NATO is criticized and viewed as a burden, but this is not a decision to withdraw. The United States will remain in NATO as long as possible.

Reason

NATO will remain, but the role of the United States will change . The USA will: 1) maintain the nuclear umbrella and political leadership. NATO is turning from an American army in Europe into a coalition where the United States is the coordinator, not the main performer. 2)) Severe pressure on the allies. This is explicitly stated in the strategies. Tools: the requirement of 2% of GDP for defense, and in fact more, linking American aid to contributions, public pressure, including threats of we don't have to protect you. Europe pays and fights, the United States governs and supports. 3️) Shifting the focus to China 2025-2027 The USA will: build up the fleet and aviation in the Indo-Pacific region, reducing non-binding commitments in Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines are preparing allies. The United States needs Europe as a stable rear, not as the main theater of war. 4) Ukraine is a test model of the future of NATO. The United States tries not to fight directly . Maximum: money, weapon, intelligence service . We arm our allies, we don't fight ourselves.

There is no document where the United States commits to withdraw from NATO by 2027.
 There are strategies and projects where NATO is criticized and viewed as a burden, but this is not a decision to withdraw. The United States will remain in NATO as long as possible.

The US withdrawal from NATO: destroys the influence of the United States , frees Europe from dependence , hits the dollar and the military-industrial complex. It is much more profitable to stay , reduce costs , and maintain control . The final formula of the US strategy to remain in NATO, but to make it less American and more European. Maintain leverage without bearing the main burden.

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Will artificial intelligence replace programmers?

Link Copy 2025-04-14 11:36:57

Prediction

No, it will not replace it, but competition for jobs will increase. And there will be a shortage of programmers in the future.

Reason

Executives at various IT companies are now publicly declaring that AI will soon replace programmers. Although the CEO of an IT company often understands little about the work of a programmer, for shareholders, the opinion of such people looks authoritative, and they believe him. Laying off programmers without losing profits is nothing more than the wet fantasies of managers and shareholders of companies. If a company cuts its programmers by a factor of five, its competitors will immediately try to overtake it, even if it costs them a couple of years of work without a profit.

No, it will not replace it, but competition for jobs will increase. And there will be a shortage of programmers in the future.

What about Google laying off programmers? It lays off expensive American programmers and immediately hires cheap Indian ones. American programmer - 4,000, Indian programmer - 1,500.

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Why is Elon Musk building so many rockets?

Link Copy 2023-06-07 14:32:46

Prediction

The future business of delivering goods to other planets

Reason

In the near future, the exploration of near space - the moon, Mars - will take place. The planets will be delivered cargo from Earth on rockets. The cheapest delivery is now through Elon Musk's SpaceX.

The future business of delivering goods to other planets

Since no country other than the United States has been mass-producing missiles, competitors will not appear soon.

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