Why is Crimea so important to Europe?

2025-04-27 15:46:43

Crimea allows Russia to completely dominate the northern coast of the Black Sea

Europe needs Crimea to control maritime transportation. Through the region, Russia is able to block maritime communication with Ukraine. Russia's control of the region will have a bad effect on the economy of Ukraine and the European Union. Accordingly, Europe needs to seize the peninsula with the forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, the recognition of Crimea is a red line for Europe, as is Ukraine's refusal to join NATO

Ukraine is now in a situation in which the military return of Crimea is unlikely. Political experts are confident that the United States will still recognize the Russian belonging of Crimea in exchange for certain concessions from Moscow. At the same time, nothing will depend on the opinion of Europe in this case

When will there be a change of the ruling elite in Russia?

2023-07-28 14:26:17

In 2024, the transition period to this change will only come.

The sanctions did not discourage the elite's aspirations to the West, but they gave rise to a desire to somehow circumvent the sanctions and quickly cancel or at least weaken part of them. The path to the West for the Russian elite remains the main one, despite the statement of insurmountable differences with the elites of the West. There is simply no other option comparable in terms of profitability. The reduction of the resource base sowed confusion in the elites and required the arbitrator to remove certain players from the number of active clans by force.

When will there be a change of the ruling elite in Russia?

A rapid large-scale purge or replacement of the elite with a new composition? What Is Putin's Choice?

How does the United States benefit from the war?

2026-01-03 09:46:51

The weakening of Russia as a geopolitical rival, the severing of Europe's energy and political ties with Russia, the increasing dependence of Europe on the United States in the field of security and resources, the growth of exports of American weapons and energy resources, the strengthening of US leadership in NATO and the demonstration of global influence without direct participation in hostilities.

US benefits from the end of the war: consolidating achieved results (a weakened Russia, Europe tied to the US, Ukraine in the Western sphere), reducing financial and political costs, lowering the risk of direct escalation, stabilizing the global economy, and the opportunity to focus on a more priority rival—China, while retaining the role of key global arbiter.

Other countries also benefit from conflict, but the difference is that the United States has more resources, more influence, and more severe consequences from any crisis.

What will Kazakhstan's current policy towards Russia lead to?

2023-07-13 15:46:58

Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have agreed to launch a new multimodal Southern Transport Corridor, which will bypass the territory of Kazakhstan. The new route solves two tasks: to avoid obstacles arising on the Kazakh border for goods going to the markets of the Russian Federation, and to transfer part of the cargo flow to the port of Astrakhan. This will deal a blow to Astana's plans to make Kazakhstan a full-fledged transport hub in Central Asia and the Caspian region. The route from China through Kyrgyzstan will become a very serious competitor to the route on Kazakhstan railways.

Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have agreed to launch a new multimodal Southern Transport Corridor, which will bypass the territory of Kazakhstan. The new route solves two tasks: to avoid obstacles arising on the Kazakh border for goods going to the markets of the Russian Federation, and to transfer part of the cargo flow to the port of Astrakhan. This will deal a blow to Astana's plans to make Kazakhstan a full-fledged transport hub in Central Asia and the Caspian region. The route from China through Kyrgyzstan will become a very serious competitor to the route on Kazakhstan railways.

Moreover, this blow to the plans of the President of Kazakhstan is inflicted from the Kazakh side, and not from Russia or Kyrgyzstan. If the transit of goods went without delays, then no one would be against using the territory of Kazakhstan as a hub. Astana's decision not to violate Western sanctions imposed against Russia was only a catalyst for the initiative to create an alternative transport corridor bypassing Kazakhstan

Russia bypasses Kazakhstan from the south