Collect

Have China and the United States agreed on tariffs?

Link Copy 2025-06-12 14:09:57

Prediction

Yes, due to Chinese restrictions on the trade of rare earth metals.

Reason

China controls rare earth elements that are necessary for almost all advanced technologies and are almost entirely produced in China. It accounts for 70% of their global production and, more importantly, over 90% of their processing. Thus, it can respond to restrictions from the USA and the EU. Therefore, negotiations will have to be made with China. Chinese media note that the supply of many important medicines in the USA is also almost entirely controlled by China.

Yes, due to Chinese restrictions on the trade of rare earth metals.

China itself is very much dependent on world trade. And foreign trade is a constant leash for China.

QR code
QRcode

Scan the QR code to open on your mobile device

Comments 0

What awaits Europe in 2025?

Link Copy 2025-01-22 02:56:02

Prediction

Quarrel with the United States, trade war, difficult economic situation, shortage of energy resources, rising unemployment

Reason

Some European countries have large trade surpluses with the United States. Trump is demanding that Europe buy more American goods to smooth out this surplus. An increase in the number of American goods on the European market means the automatic displacement of European manufacturers, the potential bankruptcy of medium and small enterprises, their consolidation and monopolization by American multinational companies and, ultimately, the subordination of the European economy to the United States, which Europe, of course, will not agree to. Gas transit through Ukraine has been stopped, and Europe has lost almost its last gas source through the pipeline. The EU is purchasing Russian LNG at a record pace, and the United States is pushing its allies to ban it. The EU should increase purchases of American hydrocarbons, if the EU ignores this, it will receive protective duties on its products supplied to America. It will end with a shortage of fuel and another price increase. Trump also intends to increase the military spending of NATO countries to 5% of their GDP.

Quarrel with the United States, trade war, difficult economic situation, shortage of energy resources, rising unemployment

Trump is putting forward exorbitant demands on Europe, which will significantly affect military-economic cooperation between the United States and Europe in the direction of deterioration and cessation. Because of this, some countries will leave the EU in the future. Europe, in which every country will fight for its own well-being, will return.

QR code
QRcode

Scan the QR code to open on your mobile device

Why does the United States need a deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia?

Link Copy 2025-08-21 17:20:51

Prediction

The result should be a transit corridor through the territory of 2 countries.

Reason

Following the talks, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to create a major transit corridor. Azerbaijan is currently modernizing the railway in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic at its own expense, and it is planned to build a railway in Armenia. The United States is not investing in this project. The expansion of US influence in this region could lead to the expansion of NATO's influence throughout the South Caucasus, which could become a wedge between Iran and Russia.

The result should be a transit corridor through the territory of 2 countries.

Armenia sells Russian gas as its own, bypassing sanctions. If the war ends and sanctions are lifted, this route will cease to be economically important, since Russia will be able to sell gas via other routes, but if we are talking about NATO expansion, then this is a completely different matter.

QR code
QRcode

Scan the QR code to open on your mobile device

When will the AI bubble burst?

Link Copy 2025-12-14 07:43:49

Prediction

In 2031.

Reason

Why is everyone talking about a bubble? 1) Huge investments with uncertain returns for many startups. 2) Thousands of AI startups that are essentially just a shell for other people's models. 3) High expectations: AI will replace everyone tomorrow. 4) Limitations of the models: hallucinations, high cost, dependence on data and computing power. OpenAI alone has attracted $300 billion in investments. Such investments will not pay off under any circumstances. By 2030, the company will need to show record profits, which it does not have.

In 2031.

Many AI startups will close or be absorbed . Investors will become stricter: we need a real business case, not we have AI

QR code
QRcode

Scan the QR code to open on your mobile device

Prediction Engine 1.0.10
Feedback
What could we improve?
Was this information useful?
Events

Events

Look at the projections for the next 100 years