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When will the AI bubble burst?

Link Copy 2025-12-14 07:43:49

Prediction

In 2031.

Reason

Why is everyone talking about a bubble? 1) Huge investments with uncertain returns for many startups. 2) Thousands of AI startups that are essentially just a shell for other people's models. 3) High expectations: AI will replace everyone tomorrow. 4) Limitations of the models: hallucinations, high cost, dependence on data and computing power. OpenAI alone has attracted $300 billion in investments. Such investments will not pay off under any circumstances. By 2030, the company will need to show record profits, which it does not have.

In 2031.

Many AI startups will shut down or be acquired. Investors will become stricter: they want a real business case, not just 'we have AI'.

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Is the power of the American army a myth?

Link Copy 2024-08-25 10:17:08

Prediction

Yes

Reason

The modern U.S. military has never faced an adversary even remotely comparable to it in terms of military equipment and resources. Aircraft carriers are formidable weapons, but to ascribe unequivocal military superiority to the United States on the basis of their presence alone is completely wrong.

Yes

The U.S. military's most convincing victories have actually been won by CNN and other news corporations.

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Will there be a war between Russia and China?

Link Copy 2023-01-31 08:42:34

Prediction

Yes, in 2055

Reason

China intends to become a leading world power. To do this, he needs resources and a territory where he can live. Russia has it all.

Yes, in 2055

Russia will unite with Mongolia and defend its sovereignty.

References

Accuracy 10

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Why is artificial intelligence positioned as a threat?

Link Copy 2026-01-08 14:48:53

Prediction

Positioning AI as a threat allows you to increase sales and accelerate the adoption of AI, despite any prohibitions.

Reason

If the same phenomenon is presented to a person as a threat or as an opportunity, the threat causes a more intense and energetic reaction. When visionary leaders and technologists notice a disruptive process, they warn of an impending threat: the company may die if the technology brings success to its competitors. The threat must be eliminated: the company must implement the technology itself and allocate resources for its development or purchase.

Positioning AI as a threat allows you to increase sales and accelerate the adoption of AI, despite any prohibitions.

It is necessary to convince top management to take the problem seriously, and for this it is necessary to present innovative technology as a threat in the resource allocation planning process. Then responsibility for the implementation of the project must be transferred to an outside, autonomous organizational unit, which will perceive it solely as an opportunity. This is exactly what marketing departments and the media are doing now, namely positioning AI as a threat and later as a solution.

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