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What happens if China starts a war with Taiwan?

Link Copy 2022-10-21 11:05:58

Prediction

There is a 30% chance that China will launch military operations. After Pelosi's visit, China's maneuvers resulted in an economic blockade of Taiwan.

Reason

If war breaks out, China will fight against Taiwan, America, Japan and Nato. India may join the conflict. China can seize the island by force, but it will be an empty island destroyed by war, which will have to be rebuilt. Sanctions will be imposed on China. Because of the sanctions, all of China's economic and scientific successes will be nullified. China is also monitoring the outcome of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

There is a 30% chance that China will launch military operations. After Pelosi's visit, China's maneuvers resulted in an economic blockade of Taiwan.

And what Taiwan is preparing for. The 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China is about to take place, where very serious decisions on Taiwan can be made. Therefore, Taiwan shows in advance that it is ready for negotiations.

References

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Who is being trained to replace Zelensky and what will happen if he is not replaced?

Link Copy 2025-04-28 13:01:40

Prediction

The kind of person with whom you can always negotiate. Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Anna Skorokhod, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko are being considered for replacement. Klitschko, by the way, has already stated that part of the territories will have to be given away.

Reason

It will be very difficult for Ukraine to return to the borders of 2014, it will have to cede territory in any peace agreement. To begin with, Ukraine will have to fulfill all Russia's demands: lay down arms, stop terror, imprison the Nazis, and approve a non-aligned status. Under Zelensky, this is impossible. If it is not replaced, then the war will drag on and the entire NATO bloc will inevitably be drawn into it. But there are already red lines of the United States, which does not want World War III.

The kind of person with whom you can always negotiate. Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Anna Skorokhod, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko are being considered for replacement. Klitschko, by the way, has already stated that part of the territories will have to be given away.

Now they will convince Zelensky and scare him that if he does not make concessions, then the territory will be completely captured by Russia, and if he gives up part of the territories and does not sign an agreement with the United States, then the remaining territory will be taken by the EU. If he does not make concessions within a reasonable time, the question of his replacement will be raised, up to murder.

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Will there be an escalation of the conflict between the PRC and Taiwan?

Link Copy 2023-03-13 14:30:11

Prediction

No, China has decided to annex Taiwan peacefully

Reason

The United States does not intend to fight for Taiwan, the treaty of assistance to Taiwan from the United States boils down to the imposition of embargoes and sanctions. The U.S. tried to escalate the conflict and only impose sanctions. Taiwan's ruling party lost the local election.

No, China has decided to annex Taiwan peacefully

China decides to annex Taiwan peacefully

References

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Is a nuclear escalation of the conflict and a third world war possible because of Russia and Ukraine in 2024-2025?

Link Copy 2024-10-15 11:14:58

Prediction

No

Reason

Tactical nuclear weapons are used in places where troops are concentrated. Russia can bomb Ukrainian troops and cities without nuclear weapons. If they are going to bomb Ukrainian cities with nuclear weapons, they take responsibility for the deaths of civilians and the consequences of the use of TNW. Therefore, nuclear weapons will be used as the last resort, in the event of a stalemate. But if Ukraine starts bombing Belarus, this will actually untie Russia's hands in the use of TNWs.

No

Neither Russia nor Ukraine declared war on each other. Shouts about the use of nuclear weapons are just political games, like shouts about the beginning of World War III. This is a reason to end the conflict and sit down at the negotiating table, if they continue to act in the same direction as now, the war could escalate into a confrontation with Europe with the use of TNWs.

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