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How will Russia respond to attacks with long-range Western weapons?

Link Copy 2024-06-12 14:52:34

Prediction

Russia will supply weapons to the enemies of the West

Reason

The President of Russia stated that if Ukraine is allowed to strike Russian territory with Western long-range weapons, Russia will respond in kind: it will supply its own long-range weapons to the forces that strike the countries that allowed the attacks. The Kremlin does not name specific countries.

Russia will supply weapons to the enemies of the West

Russia cannot directly attack Western countries because it would lead to World War III. Russia's choice of countries is limited: Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba, and African countries. The first targets for the use of this weapon will be ships and a possible blockade of sea routes.

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What will happen after a global Microsoft outage?

Link Copy 2024-07-19 14:01:11

Prediction

Microsoft shares will drop in price. It is likely that Microsoft will face lawsuits for damages. Some companies will switch to competitors' cloud services.

Reason

There are SLAs: a document that specifies the technical performance guarantees provided by the cloud service provider, the procedure for identifying and resolving disputes, as well as remedies for failures. In this case, these guarantees were violated.

Microsoft shares will drop in price. It is likely that Microsoft will face lawsuits for damages. Some companies will switch to competitors' cloud services.

Competitors will take advantage of this opportunity to lure affected companies to their cloud services. In addition, for some time, this will serve as negative publicity for Microsoft.

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What will happen if Ukraine wins the war?

Link Copy 2023-01-11 05:38:29

Prediction

Russia will have to pay hundreds of billions to compensate for the physical damage caused by the invasion. Military restrictions of the Russian Navy: no Russian Navy in the Black, Azov and Baltic Seas for 50 years. Military restrictions of the Russian army: from all its northern, western and southern borders, Russia must withdraw troops at least 100 km. War crimes: Russia must be punished for its wartime atrocities. Nuclear weapons: Under the new treaty with NATO, Russia must immediately agree to reduce its nuclear weapons to a quantity and quality no greater than that of the United States, and agree to inspections by NATO to ensure this compliance.

Reason

The scenario is plausible if Ukraine is supported long enough or fought on the side of Ukraine.

Russia will have to pay hundreds of billions to compensate for the physical damage caused by the invasion. Military restrictions of the Russian Navy: no Russian Navy in the Black, Azov and Baltic Seas for 50 years. Military restrictions of the Russian army: from all its northern, western and southern borders, Russia must withdraw troops at least 100 km. War crimes: Russia must be punished for its wartime atrocities. Nuclear weapons: Under the new treaty with NATO, Russia must immediately agree to reduce its nuclear weapons to a quantity and quality no greater than that of the United States, and agree to inspections by NATO to ensure this compliance.

All that stops the West from these scenarios is Russia's possession of nuclear weapons.

References

Accuracy 20

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Why are so many wars happening right now?

Link Copy 2026-03-14 15:04:30

Prediction

Because of the recession, because of the expectation of quick victories, because of ambitions

Reason

Sometimes war is used to distract from internal problems. The struggle for resources (oil, gas, water, rare metals) intensifies. This is especially noticeable in regions with unstable politics. Very often wars begin when a country's leadership believes that victory will be quick and cheap. For example, Russia-Ukraine. Sometimes countries start a war when they believe the international situation is favorable to them. Like the USA-Iran or USA-Venezuela. Regional conflicts and escalation. Like India-Pakistan, Israel-Gaza Strip, Cambodian-Thai conflict, Afghan-Pakistani war.

Because of the recession, because of the expectation of quick victories, because of ambitions

After the end of the Cold War in 1991, the world became less predictable. Previously, two superpowers — the United States of America and the Soviet Union — restrained each other. Now several centers of power are emerging: China, Russia, the USA, regional powers like Iran and Turkey. When forces are distributed among many players, there are usually more conflicts.

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