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Will Russia be able to carry out import substitution of electronics by 2030?

Link Copy 2022-12-12 08:25:20

Prediction

If we are talking about the purchase of obsolete equipment, then yes. If we are talking about the production of semiconductors with 0, then no.

Reason

Lack of specialists. There is a critical dependence of the design and production processes on foreign technologies, including software, and materials (in particular, high-purity chemistry and silicon). Low investment attractiveness of the industry. Lack of production capacity.

If we are talking about the purchase of obsolete equipment, then yes. If we are talking about the production of semiconductors with 0, then no.

3.19 trillion rubles will be enough only to buy obsolete equipment. ASML spent $6 billion a year to become an industry leader. But she had specialists, there were no sanctions and there was no urgent need. In the current situation, the amount needs to be tripled.

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Which party will win the 2024 Indian general election?

Link Copy 2023-03-31 13:00:45

Prediction

BJP to win India's May 2024 elections

Reason

In previous elections in all states, with the exception of the Dravidian Tamil Nadu, where the BJP suffered a serious defeat, this party either maintained or improved its position. In such key Hindu states as Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, the BJP's victory was total.

BJP to win India's May 2024 elections

The Indian economy is now well balanced, and the country's leadership is doing everything to develop it further.

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When will robots with human consciousness appear?

Link Copy 2024-05-02 15:04:15

Prediction

Prototypes will appear in 2027

Reason

Developments in the field of artificial intelligence do not stand still

Prototypes will appear in 2027

Of course it will only be an imitation

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What is Russia's path?

Link Copy 2023-09-27 09:43:10

Prediction

First it will restore the USSR, then it will start a war with China.

Reason

After the coup in Ukraine in 2014 and the failed coup in Belarus in 2020, Russia realized that if nothing was done, the country would face war. Therefore, an association of countries like the European Union will be created. Belarus will be the first to enter it. Due to the sanctions in the country, almost the entire high-tech sector depends on supplies from China. With sanctions, high levels of corruption, high taxes and the elites' disinterest in change, Russia will not be able to resist the Chinese economy. Eventually, China will displace all competitors, including domestic companies, and will dominate the country. There is no progress in creating a competitive economy. Chinese specialists will move to the country en masse, displacing Russian specialists. When Russia tries to restrict China, China will act militarily.

First it will restore the USSR, then it will start a war with China.

Moscow takes all taxes for itself, and then distributes them by region. The regional elite is not at all interested in the growth of business in the regions, since its well-being depends on the ability to ask Moscow, and not on the growth of the number of enterprises. It is impossible to conduct business legally in the regions without paying bribes and fines. The legislation allows businesses to be blocked for 30 days in case of violations, so businesses pay bribes to avoid being blocked. A 47% tax and a 13% credit rate also do not contribute to business growth. Compared to the Chinese tax of 12% and the credit rate of 0.02%. Despite the fact that China spends money on cargo transportation, it is more profitable to produce and buy in China than in Russia.

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