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Will Russia be able to carry out import substitution of electronics by 2030?

Link Copy 2022-12-12 08:25:20

Prediction

If we are talking about the purchase of obsolete equipment, then yes. If we are talking about the production of semiconductors with 0, then no.

Reason

Lack of specialists. There is a critical dependence of the design and production processes on foreign technologies, including software, and materials (in particular, high-purity chemistry and silicon). Low investment attractiveness of the industry. Lack of production capacity.

If we are talking about the purchase of obsolete equipment, then yes. If we are talking about the production of semiconductors with 0, then no.

3.19 trillion rubles will be enough only to buy obsolete equipment. ASML spent $6 billion a year to become an industry leader. But she had specialists, there were no sanctions and there was no urgent need. In the current situation, the amount needs to be tripled.

References

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Will Russia and Ukraine be able to make peace after Trump's ultimatum in 50 days?

Link Copy 2025-07-15 10:44:44

Prediction

No, there may be attempts to make peace that will lead to nothing.

Reason

Neither Ukraine nor Russia agrees to a peace treaty in the form that the West wants to see. If peace is concluded now, Ukraine will lose part of its territories, and Russia will receive a hostile country that, having recovered, will attack again. Therefore, the war will continue until a victorious end.

No, there may be attempts to make peace that will lead to nothing.

For some reason, Russia cannot understand and realize that if a country starts a war, it will have to go to the end. To the borders of Europe and even fight against NATO.

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Will the Japanese lunar rover be able to successfully land on the moon?

Link Copy 2023-09-06 09:06:41

Prediction

Yes

Reason

This is already Japan's third attempt to land on the Moon.

Yes

If everything goes well, Japan will become the 5th country after the USSR, USA, China, and India to successfully land its own equipment on the Moon.

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Why is the ruble falling because Russia does not depend on the dollar?

Link Copy 2023-04-16 12:13:49

Prediction

This is an attempt to make money on the sale of energy resources

Reason

Russia is trying to compensate for the low volume of energy sales and the discounts they are forced to make with the high price of the dollar

This is an attempt to make money on the sale of energy resources

An important factor for the ruble is oil prices, which may affect its dynamics

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