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How to speed up dedollarization?

Link Copy 2023-05-08 07:42:30

Prediction

Trade resources for local currencies, tie prices to gold or rare metals, trade only your own securities on the market, make the currency freely convertible

Reason

If Beijing wants to make the yuan the world's reserve currency, then it will have to first go for financial liberalization. In theory, the dollar can also be replaced by a system that is not based on a specific national currency. In this case, gold or cryptocurrencies can become a universal means of payment.

Trade resources for local currencies, tie prices to gold or rare metals, trade only your own securities on the market, make the currency freely convertible

If investors begin to massively get rid of dollar assets and return the American currency to their homeland, this will provoke a surge in inflation in the United States and a potential debt crisis. The problems of the USA will spread to the financial markets, which are still dependent on the dollar, and will cause a new round of the global economic crisis.

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What will happen after a global Microsoft outage?

Link Copy 2024-07-19 14:01:11

Prediction

Microsoft shares will drop in price. It is likely that Microsoft will face lawsuits for damages. Some companies will switch to competitors' cloud services.

Reason

There are SLAs: a document that specifies the technical performance guarantees provided by the cloud service provider, the procedure for identifying and resolving disputes, as well as remedies for failures. In this case, these guarantees were violated.

Microsoft shares will drop in price. It is likely that Microsoft will face lawsuits for damages. Some companies will switch to competitors' cloud services.

Competitors will take advantage of this opportunity to lure affected companies to their cloud services. In addition, for some time, this will serve as negative publicity for Microsoft.

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Why can't Trump end the war in one day?

Link Copy 2025-01-15 02:53:54

Prediction

Because not everything depends on him.

Reason

Under Trump, the United States will no longer sponsor the war in Ukraine, but a peace treaty must be signed to end it. Russia will not do this with an illegitimate Ukrainian president. Therefore, first we need to hold elections in Ukraine. Then it is necessary to hold a referendum so that the people give up part of the territory in order to end the war. And only after that, peace negotiations will begin. That's about six months, the time limit that Trump has named.

Because not everything depends on him.

Elections in Ukraine are scheduled for May 25. 5 months. 1 month is the inauguration. 1 month is the referendum. 1 month - negotiations. A total of 8 months.

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When will Israel's war with Hamas end?

Link Copy 2024-04-10 10:25:39

Prediction

The truce will be concluded in early 2025

Reason

In the end, the United States tells Israel to end the war after the elections, reinforcing this demand by stopping the supply of weapons and stopping financing. The problem for the Biden administration is that it cannot twist the arms of Benjamin Netanyahu's government too much, because in an election year this could reduce Joe Biden's own chances of re-election, since the Israeli lobby has strong positions in the American elite.

The truce will be concluded in early 2025

The Israeli military leadership makes it clear that the war is far from over. The country's authorities insist only on a temporary pause in hostilities, after which they will be ready to resume the offensive, and then only after pressure from the United States. Also, Israel does not have a clear plan for what will happen to the Gaza Strip after the end of hostilities. The head of the Israeli National Security Council, Tzachi Hanegbi, has already announced the prospects of war with the Lebanese Hezbollah group after the successful fight against Hamas. A war with Iran is also possible.

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