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When will Russia run out of oil for export?

Link Copy 2023-10-09 03:18:52

Prediction

If production rates are not reduced and new deposits are not discovered, then in 2040

Reason

Russian Energy Minister Novak noted in 2018 that oil production in Russia, in the absence of incentives, could fall by 44% by 2035. Taking into account the coronavirus infection in 2019 and sanctions, these deadlines have shifted to 2040.

If production rates are not reduced and new deposits are not discovered, then in 2040

Russia has one of the highest taxes on the oil industry in the world, which makes it difficult to stimulate production.

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What happens if China starts a war with Taiwan?

Link Copy 2022-10-21 11:05:58

Prediction

There is a 30% chance that China will launch military operations. After Pelosi's visit, China's maneuvers resulted in an economic blockade of Taiwan.

Reason

If war breaks out, China will fight against Taiwan, America, Japan and Nato. India may join the conflict. China can seize the island by force, but it will be an empty island destroyed by war, which will have to be rebuilt. Sanctions will be imposed on China. Because of the sanctions, all of China's economic and scientific successes will be nullified. China is also monitoring the outcome of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

There is a 30% chance that China will launch military operations. After Pelosi's visit, China's maneuvers resulted in an economic blockade of Taiwan.

And what Taiwan is preparing for. The 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China is about to take place, where very serious decisions on Taiwan can be made. Therefore, Taiwan shows in advance that it is ready for negotiations.

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Accuracy 40

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Will Deep Seek be able to overtake its American competitors?

Link Copy 2025-02-07 14:54:39

Prediction

If the Chinese government continues to allocate huge amounts of money, then yes.

Reason

China has proven that it can compete with American companies, and if you follow the same path, you can achieve superiority. However, Americans will have an advantage because English is easier, there is more data for training in the USA, because IT giants are mainly located in the USA, and there is also more money.

If the Chinese government continues to allocate huge amounts of money, then yes.

The giants of Silicon Valley demonstrate their belief that large-scale capacity building is the key to a breakthrough in the field of AI. However, the emergence of the Chinese company Deep Seek has called this approach into question.

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What is the main disadvantage of Putin?

Link Copy 2023-04-28 12:35:05

Prediction

Bad personnel policy

Reason

Vladimir Putin has raised the bar too high for subsequent presidents, which means that no matter what new candidate comes in, he is unlikely to reach Putin, which may negatively affect the state of affairs in the country. The same is true of figures in key positions in the country; there are also no comparable candidates to replace them. They just don't grow.

Bad personnel policy

Putin's main personnel problem is that he appoints the faithful, but asks how smart they are.

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