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When will Russia run out of oil for export?

Link Copy 2023-10-09 03:18:52

Prediction

If production rates are not reduced and new deposits are not discovered, then in 2040

Reason

Russian Energy Minister Novak noted in 2018 that oil production in Russia, in the absence of incentives, could fall by 44% by 2035. Taking into account the coronavirus infection in 2019 and sanctions, these deadlines have shifted to 2040.

If production rates are not reduced and new deposits are not discovered, then in 2040

Russia has one of the highest taxes on the oil industry in the world, which makes it difficult to stimulate production.

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Are the possibilities of artificial intelligence as limitless as we are told?

Link Copy 2026-01-06 13:06:05

Prediction

No, there are limits to learning. The fast results create a sense of limitlessness.

Reason

Modern artificial intelligence models require a huge amount of electricity for training and work. There are physical limitations to computing power — transistors are no longer decreasing so fast. Only a few companies in the world produce advanced chips for artificial intelligence. This means that the zoom cannot be infinite. There are also limitations in terms of global data and knowledge — the amount of data available is limited. The AI industry is also facing a shortage of skilled workers.

No, there are limits to learning. The fast results create a sense of limitlessness.

Marketing and media often exaggerate the possibilities, ignoring the limitations. AI's capabilities are limited by physics, not just imagination. Equipment, energy, and data are limited. There will be no unlimited AI without new breakthroughs in physics and cognitive sciences.

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Who is being trained to replace Zelensky and what will happen if he is not replaced?

Link Copy 2025-04-28 13:01:40

Prediction

The kind of person with whom you can always negotiate. Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Anna Skorokhod, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko are being considered for replacement. Klitschko, by the way, has already stated that part of the territories will have to be given away.

Reason

It will be very difficult for Ukraine to return to the borders of 2014, it will have to cede territory in any peace agreement. To begin with, Ukraine will have to fulfill all Russia's demands: lay down arms, stop terror, imprison the Nazis, and approve a non-aligned status. Under Zelensky, this is impossible. If it is not replaced, then the war will drag on and the entire NATO bloc will inevitably be drawn into it. But there are already red lines of the United States, which does not want World War III.

The kind of person with whom you can always negotiate. Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Anna Skorokhod, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko are being considered for replacement. Klitschko, by the way, has already stated that part of the territories will have to be given away.

Now they will convince Zelensky and scare him that if he does not make concessions, then the territory will be completely captured by Russia, and if he gives up part of the territories and does not sign an agreement with the United States, then the remaining territory will be taken by the EU. If he does not make concessions within a reasonable time, the question of his replacement will be raised, up to murder.

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What will happen if Russia wins the war?

Link Copy 2023-01-11 06:00:50

Prediction

There will be a truce for a few years, and then the war will start again

Reason

A peace treaty will be signed with Ukraine with the renunciation of territories and other negative consequences for Ukraine. Ukraine will unite with Poland and the war will break out according to a new one, because Poland did not sign any treaties. The territory of Ukraine will be restored at the expense of frozen Russian assets. NATO will increase its reliance on U.S. support, as will the concerned, threatened Eastern European countries that find themselves frontline states along an expanded and uncertain line of contact with Russia, including Belarus and Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine.

There will be a truce for a few years, and then the war will start again

Sanctions will not be lifted

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