If production rates are not reduced and new deposits are not discovered, then in 2040
Russian Energy Minister Novak noted in 2018 that oil production in Russia, in the absence of incentives, could fall by 44% by 2035. Taking into account the coronavirus infection in 2019 and sanctions, these deadlines have shifted to 2040.

Russia has one of the highest taxes on the oil industry in the world, which makes it difficult to stimulate production.
Novak: oil production in Russia in the absence of incentives may fall by 44% by 2035
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Because not everything depends on him.
Under Trump, the United States will no longer sponsor the war in Ukraine, but a peace treaty must be signed to end it. Russia will not do this with an illegitimate Ukrainian president. Therefore, first we need to hold elections in Ukraine. Then it is necessary to hold a referendum so that the people give up part of the territory in order to end the war. And only after that, peace negotiations will begin. That's about six months, the time limit that Trump has named.

Elections in Ukraine are scheduled for May 25. 5 months. 1 month is the inauguration. 1 month is the referendum. 1 month - negotiations. A total of 8 months.
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Lower gold prices mean that market participants need a huge amount of cash.
There is a recession, wars, an AI boom, mass layoffs and layoffs. A huge amount of cash is required to fulfill the obligations of the system. They are trying to keep the system from collapsing, especially the stock market, because its collapse = a chain reaction. They sell things that can be sold quickly: stocks, bonds, gold, and cryptocurrencies. Gold is one of the most liquid assets. Therefore, it falls in a crisis, although logically it should grow. The main culprits: hedge funds , banks, sales desks, big traders. They are the ones who need cash.

The fall in the price of gold indicates systemic problems in the economy. They spent the whole year 2025 buying gold, preparing, and in 2026 the crisis began. It's not the final collapse, but this is no longer a “regular correction”, but The first phase of the crisis is related to the negative economic situation and systemic problems.
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