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Why is there no change for the better in Kazakhstan under the new president?

Link Copy 2023-11-16 09:25:30

Prediction

Nursultan Nazarbayev is gone, but not to the end

Reason

Most appointments are made for authoritarian, clan, and patronage purposes. This means that a certain person is appointed to the post of regional akim or minister, not so much because he is good at what he does and has the right level of professionalism and experience, but because he will definitely do what he is told, what the president ordered him to do. Thus, the ministers became extras who simply supported the main character, the president.

Nursultan Nazarbayev is gone, but not to the end

In simple terms, in order to give additional opportunities to someone (for example, small and medium-sized businesses, which are currently being talked about a lot), you need to take these opportunities away from those who use them incorrectly or incorrectly. And this already smacks of a redistribution of power. That is, in fact, there is a question of reducing the caste of untouchables and the resources controlled by it.

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When will the energy crisis happen in Europe?

Link Copy 2023-09-15 00:42:40

Prediction

It will begin in the fall of 2025

Reason

With the loss of Africa, after coups d'etat and the outbreak of war in Africa, Europe will be cut off from African energy resources. After the change of leadership, the United States will have another energy program aimed at providing energy resources first for itself, and then only selling them to Europe. Cooperation between Russia and China. China will need energy resources for its growing economy. These factors will lead to an increase in energy prices worldwide. Demand will grow, but the number of offers will remain the same.

It will begin in the fall of 2025

European countries will be unevenly affected by the energy crisis. The crisis will be accompanied by a slowdown in economic growth

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What will happen after the special operation?

Link Copy 2022-10-26 13:18:44

Prediction

The Russian economy will be reoriented from the Western to the Chinese economy. The Russian market will be open to Chinese companies. Ukraine will lose part of its territories. Europe will rebuild the ruined Ukraine at its own expense. It will be very difficult for companies from the EU to return to the Russian market, because it is already occupied by Russian and Chinese companies. America will be losing spheres of influence.

Reason

This military operation is in fact a division of spheres of influence. Russia, having regained its sovereignty and returned to the legitimate outcome of World War II, will inevitably restore lost territories to the borders of 1945. That is why Russia is not supported by the post-Soviet countries.

The Russian economy will be reoriented from the Western to the Chinese economy. The Russian market will be open to Chinese companies. Ukraine will lose part of its territories. Europe will rebuild the ruined Ukraine at its own expense. It will be very difficult for companies from the EU to return to the Russian market, because it is already occupied by Russian and Chinese companies. America will be losing spheres of influence.

These actions are already underway and will stretch over a period of 5 years

References

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Will there be a global financial crisis due to U.S. bank failures?

Link Copy 2023-03-29 11:59:43

Prediction

No, the U.S. financial system is stable, but bank stocks will fall

Reason

Next week the Fed will decide whether to raise rates or not. If the rate is lowered it will be a blow to the dollar, if it is raised it will be a blow to the banks. Most bank analysts are predicting that the rate will go up because it is more important to save the dollar. The report will be published in 3 weeks after the meeting, i.e. at the end of April. It also coincides with the publication of Q2 reports. After that there will be an avalanche of falling stocks of banks and technology companies.

No, the U.S. financial system is stable, but bank stocks will fall

In 2 months you have to sell stocks of banks and technology companies or play the downside

References

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