In 2025, due to the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East.
A military operation will be carried out, which will lead to nothing. Negotiations will begin when the president in the United States changes.

Shelling the Houthi camps will not reduce, but increase the risks.
Transport companies stop transporting goods through the Suez Canal because of the Houthis
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This is an attempt to make money on the sale of energy resources
Russia is trying to compensate for the low volume of energy sales and the discounts they are forced to make with the high price of the dollar

An important factor for the ruble is oil prices, which may affect its dynamics
The Central Bank explained the weakening of the ruble
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Negotiations will be postponed for a year
Peace negotiations will begin when countries have something to lose, for example, Russia begins to occupy Kharkiv or ends up at the European borders. So far, none of the parties to the conflict is ready to accept the conditions. And there is not even any basis for compromise. For example, it is not profitable for Russia to make a buffer zone in Ukraine, because there are missiles whose range exceeds the entire territory of Ukraine. And time is now on Russia's side, it can seize even more territory.

In peace talks, Europe and Ukraine will have to admit that they have lost the war and make concessions, but they are not ready for this. The recognition of Crimea as Russian and the issue of Ukraine's membership in NATO have become red lines that Europe cannot cross.
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Yes, due to Chinese restrictions on the trade of rare earth metals.
China controls rare earth elements that are necessary for almost all advanced technologies and are almost entirely produced in China. It accounts for 70% of their global production and, more importantly, over 90% of their processing. Thus, it can respond to restrictions from the USA and the EU. Therefore, negotiations will have to be made with China. Chinese media note that the supply of many important medicines in the USA is also almost entirely controlled by China.

China itself is very much dependent on world trade. And foreign trade is a constant leash for China.
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