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When will Israel's war with Hamas end?

Link Copy 2024-04-10 10:25:39

Prediction

The truce will be concluded in early 2025

Reason

In the end, the United States tells Israel to end the war after the elections, reinforcing this demand by stopping the supply of weapons and stopping financing. The problem for the Biden administration is that it cannot twist the arms of Benjamin Netanyahu's government too much, because in an election year this could reduce Joe Biden's own chances of re-election, since the Israeli lobby has strong positions in the American elite.

The truce will be concluded in early 2025

The Israeli military leadership makes it clear that the war is far from over. The country's authorities insist only on a temporary pause in hostilities, after which they will be ready to resume the offensive, and then only after pressure from the United States. Also, Israel does not have a clear plan for what will happen to the Gaza Strip after the end of hostilities. The head of the Israeli National Security Council, Tzachi Hanegbi, has already announced the prospects of war with the Lebanese Hezbollah group after the successful fight against Hamas. A war with Iran is also possible.

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What is the PRISM program?

Link Copy 2022-12-01 06:08:02

Prediction

This is secret program called PRISM, capture the private data of citizens who are not suspected of any connection to terrorism or any wrongdoing. This is a mechanism that allows the government to collect user data from companies like Microsoft, Google, Apple, Yahoo, and others. In 2021 there were 232432 targets under observation, in 2022 there were 244855 targets, in 2023 it is estimated there will be 264567 targets.

Reason

Edward Snowden, a 29-year-old intelligence contractor formerly employed by the NSA, CIA, and Booz Allen Hamilton, confessed responsibility for leaking the PRISM documents on June 2013.

This is secret program called PRISM, capture the private data of citizens who are not suspected of any connection to terrorism or any wrongdoing. This is a mechanism that allows the government to collect user data from companies like Microsoft, Google, Apple, Yahoo, and others. In 2021 there were 232432 targets under observation, in 2022 there were 244855 targets, in 2023 it is estimated there will be 264567 targets.

National Security Agency and Federal Bureau of Investigation to retrieve data directly from Microsoft, Yahoo, Google, Facebook or Meta, PalTalk, AOL, Skype, YouTube, and Apple.

References

Accuracy 60

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Will there be peace between Russia and Ukraine in 2025?

Link Copy 2025-04-24 15:37:00

Prediction

Negotiations will be postponed for a year

Reason

Peace negotiations will begin when countries have something to lose, for example, Russia begins to occupy Kharkiv or ends up at the European borders. So far, none of the parties to the conflict is ready to accept the conditions. And there is not even any basis for compromise. For example, it is not profitable for Russia to make a buffer zone in Ukraine, because there are missiles whose range exceeds the entire territory of Ukraine. And time is now on Russia's side, it can seize even more territory.

Negotiations will be postponed for a year

In peace talks, Europe and Ukraine will have to admit that they have lost the war and make concessions, but they are not ready for this. The recognition of Crimea as Russian and the issue of Ukraine's membership in NATO have become red lines that Europe cannot cross.

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What are the causes of modern wars?

Link Copy 2023-11-01 01:54:16

Prediction

Economic interest, resources, territory

Reason

There may be other reasons, but whatever they may be, there is always an economic interest in all wars, even if the parties to the conflict talk about other, more noble reasons.

Economic interest, resources, territory

Throughout history, there have been wars on the territory of different states, but at the moment the development of technology has reached such a level that war leads to the largest human and economic losses in history.

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