2024-04-19 15:30:36

Iran and Israel will continue to exchange blows, but it will not come to a third world war.

Neither Iran nor Israel is interested in a full-scale conflict. In Tel Aviv itself, many are annoyed by the result of the Israeli strike on the Iranian embassy in Syria, when Iranian generals were killed under fire. Iran was ready to forgive the attack in exchange for the condemnation of Israel by the world community. Since this did not happen, Iran, in turn, responded to these actions with a missile attack on Israel a week ago, demonstrating to the whole world its advanced weapons, and at the same time the vulnerability of the Israeli Iron Dome air defense system.

Israel is in a more difficult position because six months of war with Hamas have not brought results. It is surrounded on all sides — Rafah, the Palestinian settlement, the Houthis and plus the Iranian problem. But fundamental changes in the region will not happen before the US elections. The elections will be held in November 2024. The United States has introduced 2 aircraft carriers into the region.

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2025-01-15 02:53:54

Because not everything depends on him.

Under Trump, the United States will no longer sponsor the war in Ukraine, but a peace treaty must be signed to end it. Russia will not do this with an illegitimate Ukrainian president. Therefore, first we need to hold elections in Ukraine. Then it is necessary to hold a referendum so that the people give up part of the territory in order to end the war. And only after that, peace negotiations will begin. That's about six months, the time limit that Trump has named.

Elections in Ukraine are scheduled for May 25. 5 months. 1 month is the inauguration. 1 month is the referendum. 1 month - negotiations. A total of 8 months.

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2026-03-29 12:54:08

There will be no ground operation, but there will be no serious negotiations, at least not until the end of the summer.

The United States is forced to reach an agreement with Iran. Because oil prices are going up. No one wanted to fight Iran instead of the United States, including NATO allies. Trump was absolutely certain of a blitzkrieg with Iran, but it quickly became clear that the war had not gone according to plan. There was no quick victory. We will have to negotiate and pay reparations. Otherwise, oil prices will skyrocket to $250 per barrel, at the current 120 and 60 before the war. The capture of Kharq will not only lead to increased tensions throughout the Persian Gulf, including possible attacks on the energy infrastructure of the countries of the region, but will actually bury any chance of an agreement on ending the war with Tehran in the foreseeable future. Even now, these chances are extremely low, primarily because of Iran's complete distrust of the aggressors, and if American troops land on Iranian territory, they will disappear completely.

Trump will negotiate oil purchases from the United States at a meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 15, and there will be no talk of ending the war. Most likely, China will think and then refuse, citing the country's interests in the region, and Europe will also put pressure on Trump inside the country, so we will have to negotiate.

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2023-07-13 15:46:58

Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have agreed to launch a new multimodal Southern Transport Corridor, which will bypass the territory of Kazakhstan. The new route solves two tasks: to avoid obstacles arising on the Kazakh border for goods going to the markets of the Russian Federation, and to transfer part of the cargo flow to the port of Astrakhan. This will deal a blow to Astana's plans to make Kazakhstan a full-fledged transport hub in Central Asia and the Caspian region. The route from China through Kyrgyzstan will become a very serious competitor to the route on Kazakhstan railways.

Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have agreed to launch a new multimodal Southern Transport Corridor, which will bypass the territory of Kazakhstan. The new route solves two tasks: to avoid obstacles arising on the Kazakh border for goods going to the markets of the Russian Federation, and to transfer part of the cargo flow to the port of Astrakhan. This will deal a blow to Astana's plans to make Kazakhstan a full-fledged transport hub in Central Asia and the Caspian region. The route from China through Kyrgyzstan will become a very serious competitor to the route on Kazakhstan railways.

Moreover, this blow to the plans of the President of Kazakhstan is inflicted from the Kazakh side, and not from Russia or Kyrgyzstan. If the transit of goods went without delays, then no one would be against using the territory of Kazakhstan as a hub. Astana's decision not to violate Western sanctions imposed against Russia was only a catalyst for the initiative to create an alternative transport corridor bypassing Kazakhstan

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